DI Review: 2003 Draft

DI Review: 2003 Draft

The following is the fourth in a ten part series in which we'll review the past 10 NBA drafts, provide the Draftability Index Score for every American college prospect, and analyze the findings. One note before we dive in, all of the data is being pulled from Basketball Reference and the NBA Geek and the win share numbers are the players' career average per 48 minutes to date. If you're new to that measurement, a league average score is .100 and 'star' level production correlates to .200 and above.

The rating system is as follows: Green level prospects are the strongest and will be notated with an E, Gold level prospects are reasonably desirable prospects and are notated with a G, Red level prospects are suspect prospects and are notated with an R, and Gray level prospects are highly suspect and are notated with a Y.

If 2002 was the weakest draft of the century, 2003 is almost certainly the strongest. Headlined by Lebron's entry into the league, 2003 saw a number of future all-stars- many of whom went on to be a part of the free agent bonanza that was summer of 2010. Let's see what a GM armed with DI would have done with this solid crop. 

Round One

                                             DI Score           Rating          WP per 48
3) Carmelo Anthony                1.07                    E                   .068
4) Chris Bosh                           .71                     G                  .134
5) Dwayne Wade                    1.49                    E                   .224
6) Chris Kaman                       .06                      Y                   .021
7) Kirk Hinrich                          .75                      G                  .105
8) T.J Ford                               .88                      G                  .068
9) Mike Sweetney                    .94                      G                  .103
10) Jarvis Hayes                      .14                      Y                  .049
12) Nick Collision                     1.04                    E                  .128
13) Marcus Banks                    .22                      Y                  .057
14) Luke Ridnour                      .35                      R                 .095
15) Reece Gaines                    .37                      R                -.005
17) Troy Bell                             .43                      R                -.033
18) David West                        1.54                     E                 .103
20) Dahntay Jones                    .32                     R                  .028
24) Brian Cook                          .44                      R                -.001
29) Josh Howard                       .86                      G                 .118

Analysis: Three of the four prospects we identified as green have been above-average NBA players and the fourth (Anthony) while inefficient, carries significant real world value. On the flip side, the prospects that scored the lowest (Kaman, Hayes, Banks) were all significantly disappointing top 15 picks and behind them Gaines, Bell, Cook and Jones also under-performed. Only Luke Ridnour mustered marginal production from the class of red and gray prospects. Three players that scored well (Ford, Sweetney, Howard) were productive players but had short careers due to recurring health issues. In these matters we must unfortunately rely largely upon traditional scouting and old fashioned luck, especially if the player in question was not greatly hampered during their college careers. 

Second Round 

                                       DI Score              Rating              WP per 48
31) Jason Kapono             .10                         Y                        .055
32) Luke Walton                .23                         Y                        .128
36) Mario Austin                 .17                        Y                        .000
37) Travis Hansen             .16                        Y                         .019
38) Steve Blake                  .64                        G                        .086
40) Derrick Zimmerman     .65                        G                        .000
41) Willie Green                  .25                        R                       -.004
43) Keith Bogans                .34                        R                        .089
45) Matt Bonner                   .36                       R                        .109
47) Mo Williams                   .60                       G                        .058
49) James Jones                 .68                       G                        .111
51) Kyle Korver                    .68                       G                        .108
53) Tommy Smith                .24                       Y                         .000
55) Rick Rickert                   .17                       Y                         .000
56) Brandon Hunter             .14                        Y                        .055

Analysis: We see mixed results from the second round: following DI isolates five gold prospects (Blake, Zimmerman, Mo Williams, James Jones, and Korver); four of whom went on to be at least marginally productive. However, this approach allows two of the most productive players (Walton and Bonner) to go unidentified. 
This was a rare second round with quite a few players that went on to have long, reasonably productive NBA careers and while DI has not matched the rate of success of round one, future production has been predicted to a mathematically significant degree. 

It was a prime year for threads too, of course...

Check out LBJ in this Senior Prom special

DI Review: The 2002 Draft

The following is the third in a ten part series in which we'll review the past 10 NBA drafts, provide the Draftability Index Score for every American college prospect, and analyze the findings. One note before we dive in, all of the data is being pulled from Basketball Reference and the NBA Geek and the win share numbers are the players' career average per 48 minutes, to date. If you're new to that measurement, a league average score is .100 and 'star' level production correlates to .200 and above.

The rating system is as follows: Green level prospects are the strongest and will be notated with an E, Gold level prospects are reasonably desirable prospects and are notated with a G, Red level prospects are suspect prospects and are notated with an R, and Gray level prospects are highly suspect and are notated with a Y.

We begin with the 2002 Draft, the weakest group of college talent of the decade according to both our numbers and the players' actual production. This draft did feature foreign stars Yao and Nene as well as
Amare coming straight out of high school, however.

Round One

                                       DI Score      Rating       WP per 48      
2) Jay Williams    .                .92              G               .020
3) Mike Dunleavy                 .85              G               .133
4) Drew Gooden                  .59              G                .089
6) Dajuan Wagner                .60              G                .000
8) Chris Wilcox                    .56              G                .070
10) Caron Butler                  .58              G                .094
11) Jared Jeffries                  .64              G                .080
12) Melvin Ely                      .33              R               -.005
13) Marcus Haislip               .10              Y                 .026
14) Fred Jones                     .24              Y                 .077
17) Juan Dixon                     .68              G                 .034
18) Curtis Borchardt             .71              G                 .041
19) Ryan Humphrey              .84              G               -.003
20) Kareem Rush                 .24              Y                 .013
22) Casey Jacobsen             .25               R                 .056
23) Tayshaun Prince             .69               G                .128
25) Frank Williams               .69               G                .003
26) John Salmons                 .55               G                .100
27) Chris Jefferies                 .33              R                -.003
28) Dan Dickau                    .13               Y                 .061

Analysis: That we have no green prospect suggests there should be few above average performers, if any. That we have three, lead by a relatively pedestrian Mike Dunleavy (.133) is totally consistent with what we would expect to find. Gold prospects are defined as prospects who outproduce Red and Gray prospects to a statistically significant degree but still do not 'hit' often enough to be considered categorically advisable. The three above average performers (Dunleavy, Prince, Salmons) we have are gold prospects, as are the next three in line (Butler, Gooden, J. Jeffries). However, several of the highest scoring gold prospects busted completely (Jay Williams, Humphrey, Borchardt). This is often the case.
The point of distinction is the frequency with with red and gray prospects bust. Five of the first six of these prospects selected (Ely, Haislip, Rush, Jacobsen, C. Jefferies) failed to make any meaningful contribution, with only Fred Jones providing even marginal win production. This level of failure is consistent nearly every year across both rounds with the gray performing slightly worse than the red.
Our highest rating went to Jay Williams, whose career was cut short by a motorcycle accident, though admittedly it was not off to a great start otherwise.

Second Round 

                                    DI score          Rating           WP per 48
30) Steve Logan               .22                   Y                   .000
31) Roger Mason             .16                   Y                    .061
32) Robert Archibald        .20                   Y                   .001
33) Vincent Yarbrough     .54                    G                   .035
34) Dan Gadzuric              .20                   Y                   .097
35) Carlos Boozer            .40                    R                   .166
38) Tito Maddox               .32                   R                   .001
39) Rod Grizzard               .61                  G                   .000
43) Jason Jennings             .34                   R                   .000
44) Lonny Baxter               .53                  G                   .075
45) Sam Clancy                 .40                   R                   .000
46) Matt Barnes                 .25                  R                    .145
47) Jamal Sampson             .31                 R                    .101
48) Chris Owens                 .67                 G                    .000
50) Darius Songalia             .25                 R                    .083
52) Marcus Taylor               .13                 Y                   .000
53) Rasual Butler                 .25                 R                   .051
54) Tamar Slay                    .14                 Y                  -.003
57) Randy Holcomb             .20                 Y                   .000
58) Corsley Edwards            .40                 R                   .026

Analysis: The draft's most productive player (Boozer) came off the board in the second round as well as two additional above-average players (Barnes, Sampson) and all three graded as red prospects. Of the few gold prospects, two failed to make a roster (Owens, Grizzard) and only Lonny Baxter was marginally productive.
Though we did fail to identify Boozer and Barnes, the grading system does confirm what we see from these players in an aggregate sense- that the vast majority score poorly on DI and fail to have productive NBA careers.

And now...the suit of the year....

Drew Gooden in a...dry cleaning bag?

DI Scores #41-60: Bullock, Davies, Siva, Curry and more...

41) Reggie Bullock - SF - North Carolina
Draftability Index: .37
Red Prospect

An improving shooter and good worker lacking ideal size and quickness.

42) Mike Muscala - C - Bucknell
Draftability Index: .42
Red Prospect

Can't defend his position and his offensive game, although good, won't make up the difference.

43) Phil Pressey - PG - Missouri
Draftability Index: .65
Gold Prospect

Pressey will get exploited by larger and stronger guards too often, though he can shoot a little.

44) Ray McCallum - G- Detroit 
Draftability Index: .49
Red Prospect

A tweener guard with an average jumper, would be very surprised if he made a difference at the next level.

45) Erik Murphy - PF - Florida 
Draftability Index: .45
Red Prospect

Spent four years in Gainesville and didn't show much until his senior season. If you go solely off of last season he is a justifiable second rounder.

46) Jack Cooley - PF - Notre Dame
Draftability Index: .42
Red Prospect

Cooley is a tough guy and a very good rebounder, but there are too many other pieces missing from his game. A 12th man for somebody maybe.

47) Brandon Paul - SG - Illinois 
Draftability Index: .35
Red Prospect

NBA athlete who struggled with shot selection and consistency with the Illini. He's a project.

48) Brandon Davies - PF - Brigham Young
Draftability Index: .45
Red Prospect

Flashed ability to score from the post and within 15. Doesn't play very strong or show much enthusiasm on defense.

49) B.J Young - G - Arkansas 
Draftability Index: .18
Gray Prospect

An explosive athlete but is under-sized and lacks a reliable jumper. Should have stayed in school and tried to round his game out.

50) Carrick Felix - SG/SF - Arizona State 
Draftability Index: .34
Red Prospect

Entered the draft on the strength of a strong junior year in Tempe, Felix is a very good rebounder and active defender, but had two very weak seasons prior to last.

51) James Southerland - F - Syracuse
Draftability Index: .69
Gold Prospect

An excellent shooter without any big blemishes; may have been protected defensively to a degree in the 'Cuse zone.

52) Michael Snaer - SG - Florida State
Draftability Index: .37
Red Prospect

Contributed for four years for the Seminoles, particularly as a three-point shooter, struggled with turnovers and efficiency when he tried to create for himself.

53) Matthew Dellavedova - PG - St. Mary's 
Draftability Index: .46
Red Prospect

The Aussie has good size and is both a creative and efficient play-maker, but he just isn't quick enough to make a big impact at the pro level.

54) Colton Iverson - C - Colorado State
Draftability Index: .30
Red Prospect

Was able to salvage his career after transferring to Colorado State- he can rebound and eat space a bit but at 6'10 you'd like if he could move and run better. He'll struggle.

55) Peyton Siva - PG - Louisville
Draftability Index: 1.12
Green Prospect

Nothing against Siva, but this has got to be a product of the 'Cardinal Effect'. For those of you new to the Index, Pitino's teams post oddly high scores, and have made some questionable prospects (Terrance Williams, Earl Clark) to look better than they were. If I were a brighter fellow, I could tell you why this was, and maybe even offer some sort of adjustment- as it stands we're just going to offer that if this one doesn't pay off, it wouldn't be the first time.

56) Robert Covington - F - Tennessee
Draftability Index: .41
Red Prospect

Covington is a talented scorer a little reminiscent of a player like Tim Thomas. Very light, he can't rebound or defend enough to play heavy minutes at either forward spot.

57) Pierre Jackson - PG - Baylor 
Draftability Index: .59
Gold Prospect

A talented scorer who excelled in an up-tempo offensive attack, Jackson is held back by a lack of ideal size and jump shooting ability but looks like he could be your second-stringer.

58) Zeke Marshall - C - Akron 
Draftability Index: .33
Red Prospect

The fact that Marshall is 7'0 and can move a bit may get him selected next month, but there is absolutely no evidence of production here. 5.2 boards a game against the Zips' level of competition for a player of his stature is quite weak.

59) Jared Berggren - PF - Wisconsin
Draftability Index: .71
Gold Prospect

Can shoot, defend and generally plays a smart and under control game. Needs to show he can rebound and get work done in the post consistent with a player of his size. Worth a look.

60) Seth Curry - G - Duke
Draftability Index: .37
Red Prospect

The Curry brand is a hot one these days, but unlike Steph, who received a High Green grade, Seth is a bit of a long shot. He can be a deadly shooter, but he lacks acceptable quickness and probably doesn't have the handle to play the point at the next level.

DI Review: 2001 NBA Draft

The following is the second in a ten part series in which we'll review the past 10 NBA drafts, provide the Draftability Index Score for every American college prospect, and analyze the findings. One note before we dive in, all of the data is being pulled from Basketball Reference and the NBA Geek and the win share numbers are the players' career average per 48 minutes to date. If you're new to that measurement, a league average score is .100 and 'star' level production correlates to .200 and above. 

The rating system is as follows: Green level prospects are the strongest and will be notated with an E, Gold level prospects are reasonably desirable prospects and are notated with a G, Red level prospects are suspect prospects and are notated with an R, and Gray level prospects are highly suspect and are notated with a Y.

The top of the 2001 belonged to high schoolers as Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, and Eddy Curry were three of the drafts first four picks. In fact much of the star power in this draft comes by way of Europe (Gasol, Parker) or the high school ranks. We sift through that which remains in search of some good pieces in this DI Review...


Round One
                                             DI Score           Rating           WP per 48
5) Jason Richardson               1.35                   E                      .111
6) Shane Battier                       2.22                   E                      .186
7) Eddie Griffin                         0.85                   G                      .078
9) Rodney White                      0.27                   R                      .026
10) Joe Johnson                      0.46                    R                     .095
13) Richard Jefferson              0.27                    R                     .124
14) Troy Murphy                      0.12                     Y                     .131
15) Steven Hunter                   0.24                     Y                      .085
16) Kirk Haston                       0.27                     R                     -.020
17) Michael Bradley                 0.19                     Y                     .047
18) Jason Collins                     0.70                     G                     .000
19) Zach Randolph                  0.47                     R                     .099
20) Brendan Haywood             0.40                     R                     .142
21) Joseph Forte                     0.35                      R                   -.017
22) Jeryl Sasser                       0.81                     G                    .032
23) Brandon Armstrong           0.39                     R                    -.004
25) Gerald Wallace                  0.92                     G                     .179
27) Jamaal Tinsley                  1.63                      E                     .093

Notes: DI hits on 2 of 3 green prospects- formally 3 of 3 before Tinsley's ignominious Utah revival. This was a great round for complementary pieces and most didn't show much promise (Johnson, Jefferson, Murphy) we did hit on Wallace and Battier on the wing. Similarly undershooting Randolph and Haywood makes this a pretty forgettable round for DI, but a GM zeroing in on Wallace and Tinsley wouldn't have hurt himself too badly.



Round Two
                                             DI Score           Rating           WP per 48
29) Trenton Hassell                 0.09                   Y                       .041
30) Gilbert Arenas                   0.74                    G                      .087
31) Omar Cook                       0.81                    G                    -.002
32) Will Solomon                     0.08                    Y                      .000
33) Terence Morris                  0.92                    G                     .025
34) Brian Scalabrine               0.21                    Y                       .054
35) Jeff Trepagnier                 0.47                      R                   -.004
36) Damone Brown                0.44                     R                    -.100
38) Michael Wright                  0.20                    Y                       .000
39) Earl Watson                      0.48                    R                     .087
40) Jamison Brewer               0.52                      G                    .000
41) Bobby Simmons               0.33                     R                     .085
42) Eric Chenowith                 0.44                     R                      .000
43) Kyle Hill                             0.21                     R                      .000
44) Sean Lampley                  0.44                     R                      .096
45) Loren Woods                    0.67                     G                     .062
48) Ken Johnson                     0.61                     G                      .000
49) Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje   0.74                    G                     .027
51) Andre Hutson                     0.61                    G                     .000
52) Jarron Collins                    0.24                     Y                     .088
53) Kenny Satterfield               0.99                     G                    -.005
54) Maurice Jeffers                 0.23                      Y                     .000
56) Alvin Jones                        0.34                      R                    .034
57) Bryan Bracey                    0.08                      Y                     .000

Notes: This was one of those second rounds where you don't even recognize guys names a couple years later. Agent Zero made an Icarus like run through the league, and Simmons, Watson, and the incomparable Brian Scalabrine made nice careers for themselves. DI was pretty high on a few of the guys to go at the end of the proceedings (Hutson, Satterfield, Boumtje) however it doesn't look like the league missed much in shuffling them through. 

DI Review: The 2000 Draft

The following is the first in a ten part series in which we'll review the past 10 NBA drafts, provide the Draftability Index Score for every American college prospect, and analyze the findings. One note before we dive in, all of the data is being pulled from Basketball Reference and the NBA Geek and the win share numbers are the players' career average per 48 minutes to date. If you're new to that measurement, a league average score is .100 and 'star' level production correlates to .200 and above. 

The rating system is as follows: Green level prospects are the strongest and will be notated with an E, Gold level prospects are reasonably desirable prospects and are notated with a G, Red level prospects are suspect prospects and are notated with an R, and Gray level prospects are highly suspect and are notated with a Y.

The first NBA draft of the 21st Century was not a particularly strong one, however we do see productive players appearing at both the top and bottom of both rounds. Will the Index provide the insights needed to pick those prospects out. For the answer we turn to the breakdown...

Round One

                                             DI Score           Rating           WP per 48
1) Kenyon Martin                      1.48                  E                      .071
2) Stromile Swift                       1.07                  E                      .046
4) Marcus Fizer                        0.48                  R                      ,022
5) Mike Miller                             0.76                  G                      .151
6) Dermarr Johnson                 0.61                  G                      .052
7) Chris Mihm                           0.49                  R                      .073
9) Joel Przybilla                        0.04                   Y                      .154
10) Keyon Dooling                    0.33                   R                      .026
11) Jerome Moiso                    0.26                   R                      .074
12) Etan Thomas                     1.06                   E                      .101
13) Courtney Alexander           0.09                    Y                      .048
14) Mateen Cleaves                 0.71                    G                     -.002
15) Jason Collier                      0.08                    Y                      .042
17) Desmond Mason               1.15                    G                      .056
18) Quentin Richardson          0.61                    G                      .106
19) Jamaal Magloire                 0.59                    G                      .080
20) Speedy Claxton                 1.06                     E                      .072
21) Morris Peterson                  0.69                    G                      .085
22) Donnell Harvey                   0.38                    R                      .065
26) Mamadou N'Diaye              1.49                    E                       .101
28) Erick Barkley                       0.84                    G                      .027
29) Mark Madsen                      0.40                     R                      .076

Notes: This wasn't a much of a showing for DI, as right as at the top of the draft we miss on Martin and Swift- a pair of big time college shot blockers who struggled with efficiency and post defense at the NBA level. Even our 'hits' (N'Diaye and Thomas) were limited rotational bigs that able to eek out borderline productive numbers. On the bright side, the majority of the lowest scoring prospects struggled as well. Gold level prospects Miller and Richardson proved to be among the round's best. 

Round Two

                                             DI Score           Rating           WP per 48
31) Dan Langhi                        0.07                    Y                     .012
32) A.J Guyton                         0.14                    Y                     .010
33) Jake Voskuhl                     0.62                    G                     .087
34) Khalid El-Amin                   0.76                    G                     .030
35) Mike Smith                         0.29                    R                    -.003
37) Eddie House                      0.20                    Y                     .077
38) Eduardo Najera                 1.14                     E                     .119
39) Lavor Postell                      0.57                    G                     .106
40) Hanno Mottola                   0.29                     R                     .019
41) Chris Carrawell                 0.67                     G                     .000
43) Michael Redd                    0.31                     R                     .128
44) Brian Cardinal                   0.32                     R                     .111
45) Jabari Smith                      0.22                     Y                     .058
48) Mark Karcher                    0.88                      G                     .000
49) Jason Hart                        0.60                      G                     .080
50) Kaniel Dickens                  0.03                     Y                      .055
53) Dan McClintock                0.06                      Y                      .007
55) Chris Porter                      0.96                      G                     .008
56) Jaquay Walls                    0.40                      R                     .000
57) Scoonie Penn                   1.05                      Y                      .000
58) Pete Mickeal                     0.65                      G                      .000

Notes: A GM armed with the Index would have been targeting Najera- a solid role player for a decade, and Scoonie Penn. I have nightmares about Penn and Redd scorching the Badgers- would he have actually done something in the league if given the chance? He had a nice European career but it's impossible to say. The round's best player, the aforementioned Michael Redd was a Red(d) level prospect, as was the saavy Brian Cardinal. 
All and all, nothing to write home about, but really there wasn't a lot to pick from either. One other thing to bear in mind, we did choose to use average WP per 48, and since these guys have experienced the downside of their career- and might be a little deflated compared to guys from the middle of the decade. This was a methodological choice and I'm happy to look at things from any statistical angle...

Another Batch of DI Ratings

We have previously graded twenty (loosely aligned to Chad Ford's board) of the top prospects in June's draft, which you can read here: http://thedraftabilityindex.blogspot.com/2013/03/11-20-initial-draftability-scores.html and here: http://thedraftabilityindex.blogspot.com/2013/02/get-smart-our-first-2013-draft-preview.html. On a night where a few playoff teams' seasons are coming to end, let's take a look at some of the players that figure to be on the board when they're making their choice.

21) Steven Adams - C - Pittsburgh
Draftability Index - .35
Red Prospect

Adams is a big dude and he blocked some shots, but the production just isn't there. If you need a five you can go there, but all you're doing is guessing. We've heard this one before.

22) Gorgui Dieng - C - Louisville
Draftability Index -1.16
Green Prospect

Something about the Pitino system seems to consistently give us some surprisingly high scores from his players and that might be what's going on here, however Dieng had two very productive seasons for the Cardinals and front offices would be wise to take notice.

23) Jeff Withey - C - Kansas
Draftability Index - .87
Gold Prospect

I like the cut of Whitey's jib, and those block numbers are awfully nice. Big and strong enough to get things done but he doesn't like to bang or back guys down. That fact is going to somewhat limit his ceiling at the next level.

24) Erick Green - PG - Virginia Tech 
Draftability Index - .28
Red Prospect

One of the inevitable "excellent shooter with no other discernible basketball skill" guys. Some figure out enough of the other stuff to make a nice career for themselves but nothing in Green's time at VT gives you much hope it will be him.

25) Lorenzo Brown - G - North Carolina State
Draftability Index - .32
Red Prospect

A point guard who finds himself in the first round conversation solely on the basis of superior athleticism, Brown looks more like a summer league flyer than a legitimate prospect to my eye.

26) Shane Larkin - PG - Miami
Draftability Index - .62
Gold Prospect

Improved considerably in all facets as a sophomore and probably could have used another year in the oven. Fundamentally sound, plays hard, just lacking in size and top-notch quickness. There may be reasons to look at the diminutive Larkin at a certain point in the draft.

27) Jamaal Franklin - SG/SF - San Diego State
Draftability Index -1.05
Gold Prospect

A truly interesting prospect, Franklin pulled down almost 10 boards a game as a shooting guard for the Aztecs. He had some success scoring the ball but possesses neither a good jumper nor great ability to finish at the cup. Franklin relies on a wild mix of runners and pull ups. Like Will Barton last year, he needs to improve his shot selection and cut turnovers, but the NBA skill sets are definitely there.

28) Deshaun Thomas - SF - Ohio State
Draftability Index - .78
Gold Prospect

A genuinely gifted scorer, Thomas lacks a natural position and has some pretty serious defensive issues. There's a good chance his shooting keeps him in the league, but it's tough to envision him starting for someone.

29) Isaiah Canaan - PG - Murray State
Draftability Index - .41
Red Prospect

An under-sized three point specialist from a mid-major. We're definitely in second round territory now. Canaan CAN shoot, and seems to handle the ball pretty well too. On the right team, he might contribute  running pick and roll in a Patty Mills type of way.

30) Myck Kabongo - PG - Texas 
Draftability Index - .14
Gray Prospect

To be an NBA point guard, generally you've got to have size or you've got to be able to make shots. Rondo or Curry. One or the other, sometimes both. Kabongo is short, slight and can't shoot a lick. Next.

31) C.J Leslie - PF - North Carolina State
Draftability Index - .20
Gray Prospect

To piggyback on that previous thought, to be an NBA Power Forward you should probably excel as a rebounder and shot challenger or score well enough to frustrate the other team's rebounder/shot challenger. Leslie is paper-thin and doesn't shoot the ball well anywhere outside the paint. No thank you.

32) Tony Snell - SG/SF - New Mexico
Draftability Index - .51
Gold Prospect

Snell is tall, long and can shoot the ball well from distance. That will be the reason a team takes the plunge with him somewhere in round two. Maybe that's what you're looking to do with your second rounder, but he certainly didn't produce much, even against middling competition.

33) Tim Hardaway Jr. - SG - Michigan 
Draftability Index - .38
Red Prospect

He's a good athlete,  can find himself shots, and makes them with reasonable efficiency. As an NBA shooting guard, Hardaway will have his nights, but as a guy that is too slight to finish or dominate his man defensively, he's at best, a bit player.

34) Nate Wolters - PG - South Dakota State 
Draftability Index - .29
Red Prospect

Wolters could be described as a slighter and slightly less accomplished version of Jimmer Fredette. His defensive production was marginal against Summit League competition- that's can't bode well for the next level.

35) Archie Goodwin - SG - Kentucky
Draftability Index - .35
Red Prospect

Goodwin is a physical specimen but didn't have much of a freshman year in Lexington. Can get to the basket and score, but he has no jumper and has not developed the secondary offensive moves he'll need at the next level. This is another total shot in the dark.

36) Andre Roberson - SG/SF - Colorado
Draftability Index - .77
Gold Prospect

Athletically gifted and an excellent rebounder, Roberson has an NBA-ready defensive game. It remains to be seen if he will be able to find a niche on the offensive end- if he can this is a pick with some real upside.

37) Trevor Mbakwe - PF - Minnesota
Draftability Index - .36
Red Prospect

A big body who can move, rebound, and defend. Mbakwe looks but the part but is extremely limited on the offensive side of the ball and had the worst showing in that respect last year as a senior. There are a lot of guys like this in the D-League.

38) Solomon Hill - SF/PF - Arizona
Draftability Index - .26
Red Prospect

Fundamentally sound, a four year contributor for the Wildcats, Hill had a nice career. He really isn't an NBA athlete and will struggle as his body doesn't really conform to either forward spot. Might be able to make a career for himself off someone's bench, but the ceiling is quite low.

39) Kenny Kadji - PF/C - Miami 
Draftability Index - .25
Red Prospect

For a man his size he gets up and down the court really well. No single stat translates more from the college to the pro game more strongly than rebounds, and with under five boards a game for his career, that fact doesn't bode well for Kadji's long-term prospects.

40) Ryan Kelly - PF - Duke
Draftability Index - .23
Gray Prospect

Fits the mold of a 'stretch' four, but is going to have size and speed issues on the defensive end. He was exposed fairly often even in ACC play. A lot like Jon Leuer from a couple years back.



We'll have one more set of ratings and then we'll go ahead and roll out our official rankings. June is right around the corner, y'all.

The Rookie Report Card 2012-2013

Greens (1.00 - +)              DI Score     Actual WP  (Avg per 48 mins - league avg - .100)
Anthony Davis                    2.80              .174
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist       1.56              .124
John Henson                      1.45               .163
Jared Sullinger                   1.08               .153      
Bradley Beal                       1.06               .088

Four of our five top-rated prospects came in and demonstrated the ability to produce wins for their teams. The only blemishes here are the fact that the troublesome back that dropped Sullinger down the draft board prematurely ended his season and the frigid first-half that tanked Beal’s rookie effort.

Golds (.50-.99 )                  DI Score      Actual WP
Tony Wroten                            .94             -.042

Jae Crowder                            .92             -.005
Kendall Marshall                      .90              .004
Terrence Jones                        .86              .210
Marquis Teague                       .83             -.086
Draymond Green                      .72             .047
Thomas Robinson                    .70              .023
Bernard James                         .70              .147
Harrison Barnes                        .68              .062
Tyler Zeller                                .62             -.017
Jeremy Lamb                            .60             -.088
Moe Harkless                           .59              .122  
Will Barton                               .58              -.004
Miles Plumlee                           .56              .022

As you will immediately note, a lot of these guys didn’t see the court much this season and so it’s tough to say anything terribly decisive on the basis of, in some cases, a few hundred minutes. As usual, we do see a pretty stark divide between the gold and green strata and find that the success rate does drop pretty precipitously.

Our open skepticism of high lottery picks Robinson and Barnes was largely validated, though Barnes did impress me at times this season. Moe Harkless was productive from day one in Orlando, which definitely came as a surprise, as he was thought to be quite raw.

Reds (.25-.49)                           DI Score       Actual WS

Terrance Ross                             .48                  -.001
Andre Drummond                        .45                   .313
Tyshawn Taylor                           .41                  -.213
Darius Miller                                .40                   .038
Jeff Taylor                                    .39                 -.002           
Meyers Leonard                           .35                  .034
Dion Waiters                                .31                 -.021
Damien Lillard                              .29                  .064
Robert Sacre                               .26                  -.220

In this grouping, productive players should be few and far between, and they are, however we do find the actual Rookie of the Year. Drummond was one of the best per minute players in the league period this season. In our defense, we did suggest in our pre-draft write-up that there was significant appeal in targeting Drummond once the top guys were off the board as a Bynum-type speculation choice. Little did we know- now all they have to do is play him.

The 'real' Rookie of the Year, Lillard, displayed enough offensive efficiency to post a marginal Win Score, but the limitations of his game were pretty apparent too, I thought. Ross and Waiters did nothing to disprove our contention that they were huge reaches and marginal prospects.

Grays (.24 and - )                     DI Score       Actual WS

Perry Jones                                   24                  -.075
Doron Lamb                                  .22                 -.101
Arnett Moultre                               .21                  .252
Andrew Nicholson                        .19                   .011
Kim English                                  .18                  -.021
Orlando Johnson                          .16                  .124
Austin Rivers                                .13                  -.093
Festus Ezeli                                  .11                  .089
John Jenkins                                 .11                  .105

The subject of possibly excessive pre-draft ridicule at our hands, Austin Rivers was, in fact, quite bad. However, there were some amazingly promising performances to come out of the bottom of our rankings. Moultrie received good run as the Sixers played out the string and played great around-the-hoop basketball. We knew he was a good athlete, but he played strong and rebounded too- we’ll be very interested to see him next season. Jenkins and Ezeli played consistent, productive roles on playoff teams and are definitely NBA players. It goes to show that a young guy, even with a muddy second-rounder profile belongs at the end of your bench far more than some Juwan Howard type towel waver.

**There are a number of other Rooks who played significant minutes that, for whatever reason, didn’t make it onto our pre-draft sheet. We ran their pro and college numbers and will stick them at the bottom here**

Et Cetera                        DI Score          Actual WS

Patrick Beverley                 .62                    .206

Qunicy Acy                        .28                    .190

Chris Johnson                    .34                    .149

Kyle O’Quinn                      .28                    .105

Mike Scott                           .21                    .084

Kevin Jones                         .42                    .041

Brian Roberts                     .13                     .015

Khris Middleton                   .28                    .008

Ben Hansbrough                 .24                   -.008

Chris Copeland                   .14                   -.045

Ken Bazemore                    .74                   -.068

Malik Wayns                       .11                    -.213

The uniting principle at work here is that most of these players didn’t get enough minutes to say anything conclusively good or bad. (The only player on the list to crack 1000 minutes is Brian Roberts- with a putrid .13 DI, I'll go out on a limb and say I don't like his chances.) 
Beverley certainly looks like a player and will get a chance to validate his performance as he will likely be a key piece for the Rockets again next season. It doesn’t look like any of these guys would have popped off of our draft board. We'll see if indeed Beverley, Acy, Johnson, and O'Quinn hold up next season and beyond.