The following is the second in a ten part series in which we'll review the past 10 NBA drafts, provide the Draftability Index Score for every American college prospect, and analyze the findings. One note before we dive in, all of the data is being pulled from Basketball Reference and the NBA Geek and the win share numbers are the players' career average per 48 minutes to date. If you're new to that measurement, a league average score is .100 and 'star' level production correlates to .200 and above.
The rating system is as follows: Green level prospects are the strongest and will be notated with an E, Gold level prospects are reasonably desirable prospects and are notated with a G, Red level prospects are suspect prospects and are notated with an R, and Gray level prospects are highly suspect and are notated with a Y.
The top of the 2001 belonged to high schoolers as Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, and Eddy Curry were three of the drafts first four picks. In fact much of the star power in this draft comes by way of Europe (Gasol, Parker) or the high school ranks. We sift through that which remains in search of some good pieces in this DI Review...
Round One
DI Score Rating WP per 48
5) Jason Richardson 1.35 E .111
6) Shane Battier 2.22 E .186
7) Eddie Griffin 0.85 G .078
9) Rodney White 0.27 R .026
10) Joe Johnson 0.46 R .095
13) Richard Jefferson 0.27 R .124
14) Troy Murphy 0.12 Y .131
15) Steven Hunter 0.24 Y .085
16) Kirk Haston 0.27 R -.020
17) Michael Bradley 0.19 Y .047
18) Jason Collins 0.70 G .000
19) Zach Randolph 0.47 R .099
20) Brendan Haywood 0.40 R .142
21) Joseph Forte 0.35 R -.017
22) Jeryl Sasser 0.81 G .032
23) Brandon Armstrong 0.39 R -.004
25) Gerald Wallace 0.92 G .179
27) Jamaal Tinsley 1.63 E .093
Notes: DI hits on 2 of 3 green prospects- formally 3 of 3 before Tinsley's ignominious Utah revival. This was a great round for complementary pieces and most didn't show much promise (Johnson, Jefferson, Murphy) we did hit on Wallace and Battier on the wing. Similarly undershooting Randolph and Haywood makes this a pretty forgettable round for DI, but a GM zeroing in on Wallace and Tinsley wouldn't have hurt himself too badly.
Round Two
DI Score Rating WP per 48
29) Trenton Hassell 0.09 Y .041
30) Gilbert Arenas 0.74 G .087
31) Omar Cook 0.81 G -.002
32) Will Solomon 0.08 Y .000
33) Terence Morris 0.92 G .025
34) Brian Scalabrine 0.21 Y .054
35) Jeff Trepagnier 0.47 R -.004
36) Damone Brown 0.44 R -.100
38) Michael Wright 0.20 Y .000
39) Earl Watson 0.48 R .087
40) Jamison Brewer 0.52 G .000
41) Bobby Simmons 0.33 R .085
42) Eric Chenowith 0.44 R .000
43) Kyle Hill 0.21 R .000
44) Sean Lampley 0.44 R .096
45) Loren Woods 0.67 G .062
48) Ken Johnson 0.61 G .000
49) Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje 0.74 G .027
51) Andre Hutson 0.61 G .000
52) Jarron Collins 0.24 Y .088
53) Kenny Satterfield 0.99 G -.005
54) Maurice Jeffers 0.23 Y .000
56) Alvin Jones 0.34 R .034
57) Bryan Bracey 0.08 Y .000
Notes: This was one of those second rounds where you don't even recognize guys names a couple years later. Agent Zero made an Icarus like run through the league, and Simmons, Watson, and the incomparable Brian Scalabrine made nice careers for themselves. DI was pretty high on a few of the guys to go at the end of the proceedings (Hutson, Satterfield, Boumtje) however it doesn't look like the league missed much in shuffling them through.
Sunday, May 12, 2013
DI Review: The 2000 Draft
The following is the first in a ten part series in which we'll review the past 10 NBA drafts, provide the Draftability Index Score for every American college prospect, and analyze the findings. One note before we dive in, all of the data is being pulled from Basketball Reference and the NBA Geek and the win share numbers are the players' career average per 48 minutes to date. If you're new to that measurement, a league average score is .100 and 'star' level production correlates to .200 and above.
The rating system is as follows: Green level prospects are the strongest and will be notated with an E, Gold level prospects are reasonably desirable prospects and are notated with a G, Red level prospects are suspect prospects and are notated with an R, and Gray level prospects are highly suspect and are notated with a Y.
The first NBA draft of the 21st Century was not a particularly strong one, however we do see productive players appearing at both the top and bottom of both rounds. Will the Index provide the insights needed to pick those prospects out. For the answer we turn to the breakdown...
1) Kenyon Martin 1.48 E .071
2) Stromile Swift 1.07 E .046
4) Marcus Fizer 0.48 R ,022
5) Mike Miller 0.76 G .151
6) Dermarr Johnson 0.61 G .052
7) Chris Mihm 0.49 R .073
9) Joel Przybilla 0.04 Y .154
10) Keyon Dooling 0.33 R .026
11) Jerome Moiso 0.26 R .074
12) Etan Thomas 1.06 E .101
13) Courtney Alexander 0.09 Y .048
14) Mateen Cleaves 0.71 G -.002
15) Jason Collier 0.08 Y .042
17) Desmond Mason 1.15 G .056
18) Quentin Richardson 0.61 G .106
19) Jamaal Magloire 0.59 G .080
20) Speedy Claxton 1.06 E .072
21) Morris Peterson 0.69 G .085
22) Donnell Harvey 0.38 R .065
26) Mamadou N'Diaye 1.49 E .101
28) Erick Barkley 0.84 G .027
29) Mark Madsen 0.40 R .076
Notes: This wasn't a much of a showing for DI, as right as at the top of the draft we miss on Martin and Swift- a pair of big time college shot blockers who struggled with efficiency and post defense at the NBA level. Even our 'hits' (N'Diaye and Thomas) were limited rotational bigs that able to eek out borderline productive numbers. On the bright side, the majority of the lowest scoring prospects struggled as well. Gold level prospects Miller and Richardson proved to be among the round's best.
31) Dan Langhi 0.07 Y .012
32) A.J Guyton 0.14 Y .010
33) Jake Voskuhl 0.62 G .087
34) Khalid El-Amin 0.76 G .030
35) Mike Smith 0.29 R -.003
37) Eddie House 0.20 Y .077
38) Eduardo Najera 1.14 E .119
39) Lavor Postell 0.57 G .106
40) Hanno Mottola 0.29 R .019
41) Chris Carrawell 0.67 G .000
43) Michael Redd 0.31 R .128
44) Brian Cardinal 0.32 R .111
45) Jabari Smith 0.22 Y .058
48) Mark Karcher 0.88 G .000
49) Jason Hart 0.60 G .080
50) Kaniel Dickens 0.03 Y .055
53) Dan McClintock 0.06 Y .007
55) Chris Porter 0.96 G .008
56) Jaquay Walls 0.40 R .000
57) Scoonie Penn 1.05 Y .000
58) Pete Mickeal 0.65 G .000
Notes: A GM armed with the Index would have been targeting Najera- a solid role player for a decade, and Scoonie Penn. I have nightmares about Penn and Redd scorching the Badgers- would he have actually done something in the league if given the chance? He had a nice European career but it's impossible to say. The round's best player, the aforementioned Michael Redd was a Red(d) level prospect, as was the saavy Brian Cardinal.
All and all, nothing to write home about, but really there wasn't a lot to pick from either. One other thing to bear in mind, we did choose to use average WP per 48, and since these guys have experienced the downside of their career- and might be a little deflated compared to guys from the middle of the decade. This was a methodological choice and I'm happy to look at things from any statistical angle...
The rating system is as follows: Green level prospects are the strongest and will be notated with an E, Gold level prospects are reasonably desirable prospects and are notated with a G, Red level prospects are suspect prospects and are notated with an R, and Gray level prospects are highly suspect and are notated with a Y.
The first NBA draft of the 21st Century was not a particularly strong one, however we do see productive players appearing at both the top and bottom of both rounds. Will the Index provide the insights needed to pick those prospects out. For the answer we turn to the breakdown...
Round One
DI Score Rating WP per 481) Kenyon Martin 1.48 E .071
2) Stromile Swift 1.07 E .046
4) Marcus Fizer 0.48 R ,022
5) Mike Miller 0.76 G .151
6) Dermarr Johnson 0.61 G .052
7) Chris Mihm 0.49 R .073
9) Joel Przybilla 0.04 Y .154
10) Keyon Dooling 0.33 R .026
11) Jerome Moiso 0.26 R .074
12) Etan Thomas 1.06 E .101
13) Courtney Alexander 0.09 Y .048
14) Mateen Cleaves 0.71 G -.002
15) Jason Collier 0.08 Y .042
17) Desmond Mason 1.15 G .056
18) Quentin Richardson 0.61 G .106
19) Jamaal Magloire 0.59 G .080
20) Speedy Claxton 1.06 E .072
21) Morris Peterson 0.69 G .085
22) Donnell Harvey 0.38 R .065
26) Mamadou N'Diaye 1.49 E .101
28) Erick Barkley 0.84 G .027
29) Mark Madsen 0.40 R .076
Notes: This wasn't a much of a showing for DI, as right as at the top of the draft we miss on Martin and Swift- a pair of big time college shot blockers who struggled with efficiency and post defense at the NBA level. Even our 'hits' (N'Diaye and Thomas) were limited rotational bigs that able to eek out borderline productive numbers. On the bright side, the majority of the lowest scoring prospects struggled as well. Gold level prospects Miller and Richardson proved to be among the round's best.
Round Two
DI Score Rating WP per 4831) Dan Langhi 0.07 Y .012
32) A.J Guyton 0.14 Y .010
33) Jake Voskuhl 0.62 G .087
34) Khalid El-Amin 0.76 G .030
35) Mike Smith 0.29 R -.003
37) Eddie House 0.20 Y .077
38) Eduardo Najera 1.14 E .119
39) Lavor Postell 0.57 G .106
40) Hanno Mottola 0.29 R .019
41) Chris Carrawell 0.67 G .000
43) Michael Redd 0.31 R .128
44) Brian Cardinal 0.32 R .111
45) Jabari Smith 0.22 Y .058
48) Mark Karcher 0.88 G .000
49) Jason Hart 0.60 G .080
50) Kaniel Dickens 0.03 Y .055
53) Dan McClintock 0.06 Y .007
55) Chris Porter 0.96 G .008
56) Jaquay Walls 0.40 R .000
57) Scoonie Penn 1.05 Y .000
58) Pete Mickeal 0.65 G .000
Notes: A GM armed with the Index would have been targeting Najera- a solid role player for a decade, and Scoonie Penn. I have nightmares about Penn and Redd scorching the Badgers- would he have actually done something in the league if given the chance? He had a nice European career but it's impossible to say. The round's best player, the aforementioned Michael Redd was a Red(d) level prospect, as was the saavy Brian Cardinal.
All and all, nothing to write home about, but really there wasn't a lot to pick from either. One other thing to bear in mind, we did choose to use average WP per 48, and since these guys have experienced the downside of their career- and might be a little deflated compared to guys from the middle of the decade. This was a methodological choice and I'm happy to look at things from any statistical angle...
Saturday, May 4, 2013
Another Batch of DI Ratings
We have previously graded twenty (loosely aligned to Chad Ford's board) of the top prospects in June's draft, which you can read here: http://thedraftabilityindex.blogspot.com/2013/03/11-20-initial-draftability-scores.html and here: http://thedraftabilityindex.blogspot.com/2013/02/get-smart-our-first-2013-draft-preview.html. On a night where a few playoff teams' seasons are coming to end, let's take a look at some of the players that figure to be on the board when they're making their choice.
21) Steven Adams - C - Pittsburgh
Draftability Index - .35
Red Prospect
Adams is a big dude and he blocked some shots, but the production just isn't there. If you need a five you can go there, but all you're doing is guessing. We've heard this one before.
22) Gorgui Dieng - C - Louisville
Draftability Index -1.16
Green Prospect
Something about the Pitino system seems to consistently give us some surprisingly high scores from his players and that might be what's going on here, however Dieng had two very productive seasons for the Cardinals and front offices would be wise to take notice.
23) Jeff Withey - C - Kansas
Draftability Index - .87
Gold Prospect
I like the cut of Whitey's jib, and those block numbers are awfully nice. Big and strong enough to get things done but he doesn't like to bang or back guys down. That fact is going to somewhat limit his ceiling at the next level.
24) Erick Green - PG - Virginia Tech
Draftability Index - .28
Red Prospect
One of the inevitable "excellent shooter with no other discernible basketball skill" guys. Some figure out enough of the other stuff to make a nice career for themselves but nothing in Green's time at VT gives you much hope it will be him.
25) Lorenzo Brown - G - North Carolina State
Draftability Index - .32
Red Prospect
A point guard who finds himself in the first round conversation solely on the basis of superior athleticism, Brown looks more like a summer league flyer than a legitimate prospect to my eye.
26) Shane Larkin - PG - Miami
Draftability Index - .62
Gold Prospect
Improved considerably in all facets as a sophomore and probably could have used another year in the oven. Fundamentally sound, plays hard, just lacking in size and top-notch quickness. There may be reasons to look at the diminutive Larkin at a certain point in the draft.
27) Jamaal Franklin - SG/SF - San Diego State
Draftability Index -1.05
Gold Prospect
A truly interesting prospect, Franklin pulled down almost 10 boards a game as a shooting guard for the Aztecs. He had some success scoring the ball but possesses neither a good jumper nor great ability to finish at the cup. Franklin relies on a wild mix of runners and pull ups. Like Will Barton last year, he needs to improve his shot selection and cut turnovers, but the NBA skill sets are definitely there.
28) Deshaun Thomas - SF - Ohio State
Draftability Index - .78
Gold Prospect
A genuinely gifted scorer, Thomas lacks a natural position and has some pretty serious defensive issues. There's a good chance his shooting keeps him in the league, but it's tough to envision him starting for someone.
29) Isaiah Canaan - PG - Murray State
Draftability Index - .41
Red Prospect
An under-sized three point specialist from a mid-major. We're definitely in second round territory now. Canaan CAN shoot, and seems to handle the ball pretty well too. On the right team, he might contribute running pick and roll in a Patty Mills type of way.
30) Myck Kabongo - PG - Texas
Draftability Index - .14
Gray Prospect
To be an NBA point guard, generally you've got to have size or you've got to be able to make shots. Rondo or Curry. One or the other, sometimes both. Kabongo is short, slight and can't shoot a lick. Next.
31) C.J Leslie - PF - North Carolina State
Draftability Index - .20
Gray Prospect
To piggyback on that previous thought, to be an NBA Power Forward you should probably excel as a rebounder and shot challenger or score well enough to frustrate the other team's rebounder/shot challenger. Leslie is paper-thin and doesn't shoot the ball well anywhere outside the paint. No thank you.
32) Tony Snell - SG/SF - New Mexico
Draftability Index - .51
Gold Prospect
Snell is tall, long and can shoot the ball well from distance. That will be the reason a team takes the plunge with him somewhere in round two. Maybe that's what you're looking to do with your second rounder, but he certainly didn't produce much, even against middling competition.
33) Tim Hardaway Jr. - SG - Michigan
Draftability Index - .38
Red Prospect
He's a good athlete, can find himself shots, and makes them with reasonable efficiency. As an NBA shooting guard, Hardaway will have his nights, but as a guy that is too slight to finish or dominate his man defensively, he's at best, a bit player.
34) Nate Wolters - PG - South Dakota State
Draftability Index - .29
Red Prospect
Wolters could be described as a slighter and slightly less accomplished version of Jimmer Fredette. His defensive production was marginal against Summit League competition- that's can't bode well for the next level.
35) Archie Goodwin - SG - Kentucky
Draftability Index - .35
Red Prospect
Goodwin is a physical specimen but didn't have much of a freshman year in Lexington. Can get to the basket and score, but he has no jumper and has not developed the secondary offensive moves he'll need at the next level. This is another total shot in the dark.
36) Andre Roberson - SG/SF - Colorado
Draftability Index - .77
Gold Prospect
Athletically gifted and an excellent rebounder, Roberson has an NBA-ready defensive game. It remains to be seen if he will be able to find a niche on the offensive end- if he can this is a pick with some real upside.
37) Trevor Mbakwe - PF - Minnesota
Draftability Index - .36
Red Prospect
A big body who can move, rebound, and defend. Mbakwe looks but the part but is extremely limited on the offensive side of the ball and had the worst showing in that respect last year as a senior. There are a lot of guys like this in the D-League.
38) Solomon Hill - SF/PF - Arizona
Draftability Index - .26
Red Prospect
Fundamentally sound, a four year contributor for the Wildcats, Hill had a nice career. He really isn't an NBA athlete and will struggle as his body doesn't really conform to either forward spot. Might be able to make a career for himself off someone's bench, but the ceiling is quite low.
39) Kenny Kadji - PF/C - Miami
Draftability Index - .25
Red Prospect
For a man his size he gets up and down the court really well. No single stat translates more from the college to the pro game more strongly than rebounds, and with under five boards a game for his career, that fact doesn't bode well for Kadji's long-term prospects.
40) Ryan Kelly - PF - Duke
Draftability Index - .23
Gray Prospect
Fits the mold of a 'stretch' four, but is going to have size and speed issues on the defensive end. He was exposed fairly often even in ACC play. A lot like Jon Leuer from a couple years back.
We'll have one more set of ratings and then we'll go ahead and roll out our official rankings. June is right around the corner, y'all.
21) Steven Adams - C - Pittsburgh
Draftability Index - .35
Red Prospect
Adams is a big dude and he blocked some shots, but the production just isn't there. If you need a five you can go there, but all you're doing is guessing. We've heard this one before.
22) Gorgui Dieng - C - Louisville
Draftability Index -1.16
Green Prospect
Something about the Pitino system seems to consistently give us some surprisingly high scores from his players and that might be what's going on here, however Dieng had two very productive seasons for the Cardinals and front offices would be wise to take notice.
23) Jeff Withey - C - Kansas
Draftability Index - .87
Gold Prospect
I like the cut of Whitey's jib, and those block numbers are awfully nice. Big and strong enough to get things done but he doesn't like to bang or back guys down. That fact is going to somewhat limit his ceiling at the next level.
24) Erick Green - PG - Virginia Tech
Draftability Index - .28
Red Prospect
One of the inevitable "excellent shooter with no other discernible basketball skill" guys. Some figure out enough of the other stuff to make a nice career for themselves but nothing in Green's time at VT gives you much hope it will be him.
25) Lorenzo Brown - G - North Carolina State
Draftability Index - .32
Red Prospect
A point guard who finds himself in the first round conversation solely on the basis of superior athleticism, Brown looks more like a summer league flyer than a legitimate prospect to my eye.
26) Shane Larkin - PG - Miami
Draftability Index - .62
Gold Prospect
Improved considerably in all facets as a sophomore and probably could have used another year in the oven. Fundamentally sound, plays hard, just lacking in size and top-notch quickness. There may be reasons to look at the diminutive Larkin at a certain point in the draft.
27) Jamaal Franklin - SG/SF - San Diego State
Draftability Index -1.05
Gold Prospect
A truly interesting prospect, Franklin pulled down almost 10 boards a game as a shooting guard for the Aztecs. He had some success scoring the ball but possesses neither a good jumper nor great ability to finish at the cup. Franklin relies on a wild mix of runners and pull ups. Like Will Barton last year, he needs to improve his shot selection and cut turnovers, but the NBA skill sets are definitely there.
28) Deshaun Thomas - SF - Ohio State
Draftability Index - .78
Gold Prospect
A genuinely gifted scorer, Thomas lacks a natural position and has some pretty serious defensive issues. There's a good chance his shooting keeps him in the league, but it's tough to envision him starting for someone.
29) Isaiah Canaan - PG - Murray State
Draftability Index - .41
Red Prospect
An under-sized three point specialist from a mid-major. We're definitely in second round territory now. Canaan CAN shoot, and seems to handle the ball pretty well too. On the right team, he might contribute running pick and roll in a Patty Mills type of way.
30) Myck Kabongo - PG - Texas
Draftability Index - .14
Gray Prospect
To be an NBA point guard, generally you've got to have size or you've got to be able to make shots. Rondo or Curry. One or the other, sometimes both. Kabongo is short, slight and can't shoot a lick. Next.
31) C.J Leslie - PF - North Carolina State
Draftability Index - .20
Gray Prospect
To piggyback on that previous thought, to be an NBA Power Forward you should probably excel as a rebounder and shot challenger or score well enough to frustrate the other team's rebounder/shot challenger. Leslie is paper-thin and doesn't shoot the ball well anywhere outside the paint. No thank you.
32) Tony Snell - SG/SF - New Mexico
Draftability Index - .51
Gold Prospect
Snell is tall, long and can shoot the ball well from distance. That will be the reason a team takes the plunge with him somewhere in round two. Maybe that's what you're looking to do with your second rounder, but he certainly didn't produce much, even against middling competition.
33) Tim Hardaway Jr. - SG - Michigan
Draftability Index - .38
Red Prospect
He's a good athlete, can find himself shots, and makes them with reasonable efficiency. As an NBA shooting guard, Hardaway will have his nights, but as a guy that is too slight to finish or dominate his man defensively, he's at best, a bit player.
34) Nate Wolters - PG - South Dakota State
Draftability Index - .29
Red Prospect
Wolters could be described as a slighter and slightly less accomplished version of Jimmer Fredette. His defensive production was marginal against Summit League competition- that's can't bode well for the next level.
35) Archie Goodwin - SG - Kentucky
Draftability Index - .35
Red Prospect
Goodwin is a physical specimen but didn't have much of a freshman year in Lexington. Can get to the basket and score, but he has no jumper and has not developed the secondary offensive moves he'll need at the next level. This is another total shot in the dark.
36) Andre Roberson - SG/SF - Colorado
Draftability Index - .77
Gold Prospect
Athletically gifted and an excellent rebounder, Roberson has an NBA-ready defensive game. It remains to be seen if he will be able to find a niche on the offensive end- if he can this is a pick with some real upside.
37) Trevor Mbakwe - PF - Minnesota
Draftability Index - .36
Red Prospect
A big body who can move, rebound, and defend. Mbakwe looks but the part but is extremely limited on the offensive side of the ball and had the worst showing in that respect last year as a senior. There are a lot of guys like this in the D-League.
38) Solomon Hill - SF/PF - Arizona
Draftability Index - .26
Red Prospect
Fundamentally sound, a four year contributor for the Wildcats, Hill had a nice career. He really isn't an NBA athlete and will struggle as his body doesn't really conform to either forward spot. Might be able to make a career for himself off someone's bench, but the ceiling is quite low.
39) Kenny Kadji - PF/C - Miami
Draftability Index - .25
Red Prospect
For a man his size he gets up and down the court really well. No single stat translates more from the college to the pro game more strongly than rebounds, and with under five boards a game for his career, that fact doesn't bode well for Kadji's long-term prospects.
40) Ryan Kelly - PF - Duke
Draftability Index - .23
Gray Prospect
Fits the mold of a 'stretch' four, but is going to have size and speed issues on the defensive end. He was exposed fairly often even in ACC play. A lot like Jon Leuer from a couple years back.
We'll have one more set of ratings and then we'll go ahead and roll out our official rankings. June is right around the corner, y'all.
Friday, May 3, 2013
The Rookie Report Card 2012-2013
Greens (1.00 -
+) DI Score Actual WP (Avg per 48 mins - league avg - .100)
Anthony Davis 2.80 .174
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 1.56 .124
John Henson 1.45 .163
Jared Sullinger 1.08 .153
Bradley Beal 1.06 .088
Anthony Davis 2.80 .174
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 1.56 .124
John Henson 1.45 .163
Jared Sullinger 1.08 .153
Bradley Beal 1.06 .088
Four of our five top-rated prospects
came in and demonstrated the ability to produce wins for their teams. The only
blemishes here are the fact that the troublesome back that dropped Sullinger
down the draft board prematurely ended his season and the frigid first-half
that tanked Beal’s rookie effort.
Golds
(.50-.99 ) DI Score Actual WP
Tony Wroten .94 -.042
Tony Wroten .94 -.042
Jae
Crowder
.92 -.005
Kendall Marshall .90 .004
Terrence Jones .86 .210
Marquis Teague .83 -.086
Draymond Green .72 .047
Thomas Robinson .70 .023
Bernard James .70 .147
Harrison Barnes .68 .062
Tyler Zeller .62 -.017
Jeremy Lamb .60 -.088
Moe Harkless .59 .122
Will Barton .58 -.004
Miles Plumlee .56 .022
Kendall Marshall .90 .004
Terrence Jones .86 .210
Marquis Teague .83 -.086
Draymond Green .72 .047
Thomas Robinson .70 .023
Bernard James .70 .147
Harrison Barnes .68 .062
Tyler Zeller .62 -.017
Jeremy Lamb .60 -.088
Moe Harkless .59 .122
Will Barton .58 -.004
Miles Plumlee .56 .022
As you will immediately note, a lot
of these guys didn’t see the court much this season and so it’s tough to say anything
terribly decisive on the basis of, in some cases, a few hundred minutes. As
usual, we do see a pretty stark divide between the gold and green strata and
find that the success rate does drop pretty precipitously.
Our open skepticism of high lottery
picks Robinson and Barnes was largely validated, though Barnes did impress me
at times this season. Moe Harkless was productive from day one in Orlando,
which definitely came as a surprise, as he was thought to be quite raw.
Reds (.25-.49) DI
Score Actual WS
Terrance Ross .48
-.001
Andre Drummond .45 .313
Tyshawn Taylor .41 -.213
Darius Miller .40 .038
Jeff Taylor .39 -.002
Meyers Leonard .35 .034
Dion Waiters .31 -.021
Damien Lillard .29 .064
Robert Sacre .26 -.220
Andre Drummond .45 .313
Tyshawn Taylor .41 -.213
Darius Miller .40 .038
Jeff Taylor .39 -.002
Meyers Leonard .35 .034
Dion Waiters .31 -.021
Damien Lillard .29 .064
Robert Sacre .26 -.220
In this grouping, productive players should be few and far
between, and they are, however we do find the actual Rookie of the Year.
Drummond was one of the best per minute players in the league period this
season. In our defense, we did suggest in our pre-draft write-up that there was
significant appeal in targeting Drummond once the top guys were off the board
as a Bynum-type speculation choice. Little did we know- now all they have to do
is play him.
The 'real' Rookie of the Year, Lillard, displayed enough
offensive efficiency to post a marginal Win Score, but the limitations of his game
were pretty apparent too, I thought. Ross and Waiters did nothing to disprove
our contention that they were huge reaches and marginal prospects.
Grays (.24 and - ) DI Score Actual WS
Perry
Jones
24 -.075
Doron Lamb .22 -.101
Arnett Moultre .21 .252
Andrew Nicholson .19 .011
Kim English .18 -.021
Orlando Johnson .16 .124
Austin Rivers .13 -.093
Festus Ezeli .11 .089
John Jenkins .11 .105
Doron Lamb .22 -.101
Arnett Moultre .21 .252
Andrew Nicholson .19 .011
Kim English .18 -.021
Orlando Johnson .16 .124
Austin Rivers .13 -.093
Festus Ezeli .11 .089
John Jenkins .11 .105
The subject of possibly excessive pre-draft ridicule at our hands,
Austin Rivers was, in fact, quite bad. However, there were some amazingly
promising performances to come out of the bottom of our rankings. Moultrie
received good run as the Sixers played out the string and played great
around-the-hoop basketball. We knew he was a good athlete, but he played strong
and rebounded too- we’ll be very interested to see him next season. Jenkins and
Ezeli played consistent, productive roles on playoff teams and are definitely NBA
players. It goes to show that a young guy, even with a muddy second-rounder
profile belongs at the end of your bench far more than some Juwan Howard type
towel waver.
**There are a number of other Rooks who played significant
minutes that, for whatever reason, didn’t make it onto our pre-draft sheet. We
ran their pro and college numbers and will stick them at the bottom here**
Et Cetera DI Score Actual WS
Patrick Beverley .62 .206
Qunicy Acy .28 .190
Chris Johnson .34 .149
Kyle O’Quinn .28 .105
Mike Scott .21 .084
Kevin Jones .42 .041
Brian Roberts .13 .015
Khris Middleton .28 .008
Ben Hansbrough
.24 -.008
Chris Copeland .14 -.045
Ken Bazemore .74 -.068
Malik Wayns .11 -.213
The uniting principle at work here is that most of these
players didn’t get enough minutes to say anything conclusively good or bad.
(The only player on the list to crack 1000 minutes is Brian Roberts- with a putrid .13 DI, I'll go out on a limb and say I don't like his chances.)
Beverley certainly looks like a player and will get a chance to validate his performance as he will likely be a key piece for the Rockets again next season. It doesn’t look like any of these guys would have popped off of our draft board. We'll see if indeed Beverley, Acy, Johnson, and O'Quinn hold up next season and beyond.
Beverley certainly looks like a player and will get a chance to validate his performance as he will likely be a key piece for the Rockets again next season. It doesn’t look like any of these guys would have popped off of our draft board. We'll see if indeed Beverley, Acy, Johnson, and O'Quinn hold up next season and beyond.
Friday, April 26, 2013
Another Interesting Case Study Courtesy of Russell Westbrook's Meniscus
As a proponent of analytics, my interest is piqued when conventional wisdom (Russell Westbrook is a borderline top five player) comes up against the objective viewpoint (Russell Westbrook is pretty good most of the time) in the NBA laboratory. Without Westbrook, will the Thunder become one-dimensional, will the supporting cast find it harder to get good shots, and will they be susceptible to a second round upset at the hands of L.A or the Griz? Or will Reggie Jackson replace 75% of Westbrook's production and will OKC mow down all-comers on the way to the Western Finals?
While there aren't many specifics regarding Russ' torn meniscus, we do know he's going under the knife and that two weeks out is the absolute minimum he'll spend on the shelf. Note: World Peace just came back from this in under two weeks, and when asked how, attributed the near-miraculous recovery to general sexiness. So, take that under advisement, I guess.
Assuming Reggie Jackson receives the bulk of the playing time at the point (read: not Derek Fisher) then the Thunder should more or less cruise without Russ. Russ was better during the regular season (WP48 -1.44 versus 1.06 for Jackson) but both players fall into the net of 'pretty good'.
Of course, even if the Thunder stay the course, the endless media-driven shell game of conventional sports analysis will rhapsodize the championship pedigree of Fisher, the steely cool of Scott Brooks, and Westbrook's sideline fashion choices as reasons for OKC's continued success. Hey, talking is easy when you can't be wrong.
P.S- Do we think he owns a suit?
While there aren't many specifics regarding Russ' torn meniscus, we do know he's going under the knife and that two weeks out is the absolute minimum he'll spend on the shelf. Note: World Peace just came back from this in under two weeks, and when asked how, attributed the near-miraculous recovery to general sexiness. So, take that under advisement, I guess.
Assuming Reggie Jackson receives the bulk of the playing time at the point (read: not Derek Fisher) then the Thunder should more or less cruise without Russ. Russ was better during the regular season (WP48 -1.44 versus 1.06 for Jackson) but both players fall into the net of 'pretty good'.
Of course, even if the Thunder stay the course, the endless media-driven shell game of conventional sports analysis will rhapsodize the championship pedigree of Fisher, the steely cool of Scott Brooks, and Westbrook's sideline fashion choices as reasons for OKC's continued success. Hey, talking is easy when you can't be wrong.
P.S- Do we think he owns a suit?
Friday, March 1, 2013
11-20 Initial Draftability Scores
11) Willie Cauley-Stein - Kentucky
Projected DI - .41
Red
7'0 and very athletic, Cauley-Stein has been gaining traction in draft rankings as his role has increased for the Wildcats. There are, however, a lot of red flags here. Cauley-Stein's body type and skill set dictate he is probably not going to be a true center, his 37% free throw shooting is...concerning, and he's only averaging about 8ppg, 6 rbs, 2 blks in 20 minutes a night. A total and complete lottery ticket. Probably should go back for his sophomore year.
12) Mason Plumlee - Duke
Projected DI - .88
A rare senior, Plumlee has gotten better every year and has made particular strides on the offensive end this season. Scored significantly higher on the Index than brother Miles, and as the smaller and quicker player, will have a better chance to compete at the next level. Probably a good pick for a playoff team needing a Nick Collison type off the bench.
13) Kelly Olynyk - Gonzaga
Projected DI - .99
Gold Prospect
He's Canadian, he's 7'0, has Adam Morrison (don't say it, don't say it!!) hair and hits threes sometimes. Olynyk is a unique prospect. After red-shirting, and posting two pretty dull seasons off the Zags bench, Olynyk has blossomed in his junior year. It's tough to know exactly what to do with a player who, for instance, increases his free throw shooting nearly 20% in one season, but that's not exactly a bad thing. Not an athlete or a banger, whoever takes the plunge with Olynyk needs to realize what they're getting (and not getting) but I'd be surprised if he busted.
14) Glenn Robinson III - Michigan
Projected DI - .60
Gold Prospect
"GR3" doesn't have that much in common his old man- he's a slasher as opposed to a spot-up shooter, is a plus rebounder, and has a reputation as a team guy. Doesn't do one thing exceptionally well, which is reflected in his middling DI. However, coming in, starting, and shooting nearly 60% in the competitive Big Ten as a freshman is pretty impressive- enough so that we could see taking Robinson somewhere in round one.
15) Trey Burke - Michigan
Projected DI - .75
Gold Prospect
Burke puts up big offensive numbers, hits a high percentage of his shots from inside, outside, and the stripe, and takes care of the ball. What's not to like? Burke is under-sized and hasn't shown much as a defender. Highly reminiscent of Lillard last year, if you need a point guard, you can take him and count on building up considerable 'real world' value, but you wouldn't want to plan on building your team around a guy like Burke.
16) Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - Georgia
Projected DI - .46
Red Prospect
Caldwell-Pope (The year of the hyphen!) was a highly touted recruit and is an intimidating athlete as a 6'6 shooting guard, but picking him this high would be purely speculative. KCP (?) has struggled with both shot selection and efficiency and hasn't shown the well-rounded game that would lead one to look beyond those limitations. We'll let somebody else try their luck.
17) C.J McCollum- Lehigh
Projected DI - .69
Gold Prospect
Has steadily improved in his four-year career and was off to the best start of his career at Lehigh before suffering a broken foot that very well may have ended his season. At 6'3, he looks better if you believe he can do everything an NBA point guard needs to, but I don't see it. He'll probably have to play at the 2. He is a good rebounder and plays the game the right way- hard to see him starting for you though.
18) Tony Mitchell - North Texas Projected DI - 1.00
Green Prospect
After a scintillating freshman season, Mitchell has regressed in every significant facet of the game in 2012-13. Mitchell's most pronounced regression has been with his shooting percentages, and while that is concerning up and to a point, it's not our favorite component of his game. A superior rebounder, shot blocker, defender and overall disruptive force, Mitchell is the kind of guy we want.
19) Isaiah Austin - Baylor
Projected DI - .64
Gold Prospect
He's 7'1 and some think still growing, so that's pretty interesting. Austin produces on the glass and blocking shots, and moves well for his size. Offensively, he's a mess. He has no low post moves to speak of and he shoots threes, like, really often. It's a complete tear-down. Too many blemishes for me. I'll just sign Hasheem Thabeet or something.
20) Allen Crabbe - California
Projected DI - .45
Red Prospect
A three-year starter for the Golden Bears, Crabbe is a good shooter and a passable athlete- all good things to be sure. However, if Crabbe struggles to get his shot at the next level- a real possibility, he's definitely in danger of busting. Not recommended.
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
Bold Predictions: Who Ya Got?
Down the stretch we come. Time to sift through the numbers and make our playoff picks.
Last Teams In:
West - Los Angeles Lakers
It's tough to really know what to do with the Lakers 'resurgence', but Kobe, Dwight, and Nash are producing enough offensively these days to cover up the team's other deficiencies. At this point, I do believe the Jazz will be the odd team out. That backcourt is hanging by a thread- every successive game they get decent production out of Jamaal Tinsley and Randy Foye is a gift from the heavens.
East - Milwaukee Bucks
Toronto and Philly are no competition, so this was going to come down to the Bucks and Celtics fighting over the Seventh Seed. Boston is absolutely living on borrowed time without Rondo, but Lee, Pierce and Terry are combining to cover at least some of that lost production for the time being. The teams are pretty much a wash, but the Bucks have a tougher schedule and the Redick acquisition, as we mentioned, creates as many questions as it answers.
Potential Party Crashers
West - Memphis Grizzles
I suppose the Grizzles don't really qualify as a surprise, but I, like most, see the Spurs and Thunder as the overwhelming favorites to meet again in the conference finals, so any interruption to that would be noteworthy. The Grizzles have won seven straight- Austin Daye, Ed Davis, and Quincy Pondexter are all giving great minutes that the Griz weren't getting at the start of the season. Defensively, now that Gay has been swapped out for Prince, there is no weak spot in their starting five, and they can look scary good at times. If the Spurs were to go cold from the outside in a potential 1-4 matchup, they might just get their tickets punched
East - Chicago Bulls.
This has nothing to do with a Derrick Rose comeback, and it would be tough to imagine that would help them too much at this point anyway. The reason the Bulls have a chance make a run is due to the fact that they have three players producing wins at a very high level right now - Noah, Deng, and Butler. Potential first round opponents like Brooklyn and Atlanta are deeper, but they lack the type of premier producers that tend to make the difference in playoff basketball when rotations are tightened. That being said, the young Butler might find himself squeezed out come spring, which of course would have the opposite effect.
Last Teams In:
West - Los Angeles Lakers
It's tough to really know what to do with the Lakers 'resurgence', but Kobe, Dwight, and Nash are producing enough offensively these days to cover up the team's other deficiencies. At this point, I do believe the Jazz will be the odd team out. That backcourt is hanging by a thread- every successive game they get decent production out of Jamaal Tinsley and Randy Foye is a gift from the heavens. 
East - Milwaukee BucksToronto and Philly are no competition, so this was going to come down to the Bucks and Celtics fighting over the Seventh Seed. Boston is absolutely living on borrowed time without Rondo, but Lee, Pierce and Terry are combining to cover at least some of that lost production for the time being. The teams are pretty much a wash, but the Bucks have a tougher schedule and the Redick acquisition, as we mentioned, creates as many questions as it answers.
Potential Party Crashers West - Memphis Grizzles
I suppose the Grizzles don't really qualify as a surprise, but I, like most, see the Spurs and Thunder as the overwhelming favorites to meet again in the conference finals, so any interruption to that would be noteworthy. The Grizzles have won seven straight- Austin Daye, Ed Davis, and Quincy Pondexter are all giving great minutes that the Griz weren't getting at the start of the season. Defensively, now that Gay has been swapped out for Prince, there is no weak spot in their starting five, and they can look scary good at times. If the Spurs were to go cold from the outside in a potential 1-4 matchup, they might just get their tickets punched
East - Chicago Bulls.
NBA FINALS - HEAT OVER SPURS IN 5
The Spurs were up 2-0 and heading back to OKC, presumably to finish off the upstart Thunder. San Antonio wouldn't win another game and didn't even come that close. What happened?
In short, Ginobili and to a lesser extent Parker's production dropped off precipitously, due in large part to the swarming perimeter defense of James Harden. What will happen this year when it's up to Kevin Martin to give the Thunder quality defensive minutes? I believe this is why Presti went out to get Ronnie Brewer but I predict that it won't be enough.With Splitter having taken a step forward and Leonard garnering a little more attention on the offensive end, I feel confident picking San Antonio to finish the job this year.
The Heat are better this year than last year- Allen is a star-level win producer, as is Wade, and were it not for a slight down tick in offensive rebounds and steals (hustling?) Lebron would be having one of the best seasons anyone has ever had. The Spurs lack the athletes to give the Heat much trouble if LBJ and company play the way they are capable.
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