Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Index 2012

The 2012 Draft Class is one of the deeper groups in recent memory and features the highest-rated player I've yet encountered. (All hail the brow!)  Without further adieu, Draftability Index 2012!

Greens (1.00 - +)
Anthony Davis                     2.80        
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist        1.56
John Henson                        1.45
Jared Sullinger                     1.08
Bradley Beal                        1.06

Analysis: Davis is as clear a slam dunk as there could possibly be, it seems. I'm not even as cautious about his offense as most. Half the league should be willing to trade their whole team for him. MKG isn't that far behind, a tenacious and gifted player with lots of good habits. There are have been a number of Roy-era UNC-ers who have outkicked their coverage in terms of DI and Henson is likely no exception, but he can rebound his ass off so I still love him. Beal has been garnering a whole lot of Ray comparisons but he sure doesn't shoot like him. There's alot to like here but he won't be able to just live on the perimeter.

Golds (.50-.99)
Tony Wroten                            .94
At 6'5, Wroten is a unique PG prospect.
Jae Crowder                            .92
Kendall Marshall                      .90
Terrence Jones                         .86
Marquis Teague                        .83
Draymond Green                      .72
Thomas Robinson                     .70
Bernard James                          .70
Harrison Barnes                        .68
Tyler Zeller                                .62
Jeremy Lamb                            .60
Moe Harkness                          .59
Will Barton                                .58
Miles Plumlee                            .56

Analysis: Wroten will raise eyebrows as the sixth best player in the draft, I get it, and there are 'ifs' here. But IF he can develop responsible ball skills and IF he can do anything with his shot, he could become a match-up nightmare at the point. He's ridiculously athletic. Two of our high lottery picks make an appearance, Thomas Robinson and Harrison Barnes. They are seemingly competent but I don't see much more for either of them. If there is one player here that I still wouldn't touch, it's Zeller. I guess he'll play 10 seasons, but why did every other player on that UNC team outproduce him? Plus, its not like he's got much room to grow. James, Barton, and Plumlee would be pretty solid 2nd rounders.

Reds (.25-.49)
Terrance Ross                              .48
Andre Drummond                        .45
Royce White                                .45
Tyshawn Taylor                            .41
Darius Miller                                .40
Jeff Taylor                                    .39
Meyers Leonard                           .35
Quincy Miller                               .35
Dion Waiters                                 .31
Damien Lillard                               .29
Fab Melo                                     .28
Robert Sacre                                .26

Analysis: The mainstream intelligentsia have correctly identified Drummond, Lillard, and Ross as the most exciting options among these mugs. Drummond is actually someone I have interest in, as he is really green and reportedly has done next to nothing to further his game, save for going through puberty. Burning a mid-first on Andrew Bynum worked and so could this. Ross and Waiters aren't great shooters or great defenders. I can't play with 'em, can't win with 'em. I haven't seen alot of Lillard, but from what I can gather on the YouTube, he's a pure scorer and a lightning bolt. So what, he's Monta Ellis? I see his perceived value far outstripping his actual value. What can he do other than shoot? DI says nothing. Meyers Leonard is Chris Mihm. That is all.

Plenty more of this to come for Young Man Rivers.

Grays (.00-.24)
Perry Jones                                   .24
Doron Lamb                                 .22
Arnett Moultre                              .21
Andrew Nicholson                        .19
Kim English                                   .18
Orlando Johnson                           .16
Austin Rivers                                 .13
Festus Ezeli                                    .11
John Jenkins                                  .11

Analysis: Allow me to make myself very very clear on this one point: Austin Rivers will be absolutely awful. Terrible. Unusable. Like out of the league in three years bad. I don't mean to pick on the guy, but I can't remember a top 10 prospect with an uglier profile. He shot miserably from the field, he didn't defend anybody, his team was a pretty big disappointment. Dude can't play. I'm pretty confident about that.
As you might imagine, I don't want any of these guys. Lamb and Jenkins could maybe gun off of somebody's bench and Nicholson has a Ryan Gomes-ian quality to him that makes him difficult to totally dismiss, but I'm just spinning yarn here. These guys are bad.

There you have it, your scorecard for the 2012 draft. Here's hoping your team isn't the one to take Austin Rivers. Cheers.


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