Bold Predictions: Who Ya Got?

Down the stretch we come. Time to sift through the numbers and make our playoff picks.

  

Last Teams In:
West - Los Angeles Lakers
It's tough to really know what to do with the Lakers 'resurgence', but Kobe, Dwight, and Nash are producing enough offensively these days to cover up the team's other deficiencies. At this point, I do believe the Jazz will be the odd team out. That backcourt is hanging by a thread- every successive game they get decent production out of Jamaal Tinsley and Randy Foye is a gift from the heavens.

East - Milwaukee Bucks
Toronto and Philly are no competition, so this was going to come down to the Bucks and Celtics fighting over the Seventh Seed. Boston is absolutely living on borrowed time without Rondo, but Lee, Pierce and Terry are combining to cover at least some of that lost production for the time being. The teams are pretty much a wash, but the Bucks have a tougher schedule and the Redick acquisition, as we mentioned, creates as many questions as it answers. 


Potential Party Crashers
West - Memphis Grizzles
I suppose the Grizzles don't really qualify as a surprise, but I, like most, see the Spurs and Thunder as the overwhelming favorites to meet again in the conference finals, so any interruption to that would be noteworthy. The Grizzles have won seven straight- Austin Daye, Ed Davis, and Quincy Pondexter are all giving great minutes that the Griz weren't getting at the start of the season. Defensively, now that Gay has been swapped out for Prince, there is no weak spot in their starting five, and they can look scary good at times. If the Spurs were to go cold from the outside in a potential 1-4 matchup, they might just get their tickets punched

        East - Chicago Bulls.

This has nothing to do with a Derrick Rose comeback, and it would be tough to imagine that would help them too much at this point anyway. The reason the Bulls have a chance make a run is due to the fact that they have three players producing wins at a very high level right now - Noah, Deng, and Butler. Potential first round opponents like Brooklyn and Atlanta are deeper, but they lack the type of premier producers that tend to make the difference in playoff basketball when rotations are tightened. That being said, the young Butler might find himself squeezed out come spring, which of course would have the opposite effect.

 NBA FINALS - HEAT OVER SPURS IN 5

The Spurs were up 2-0 and heading back to OKC, presumably to finish off the upstart Thunder. San Antonio wouldn't win another game and didn't even come that close. What happened? 

In short, Ginobili and to a lesser extent Parker's production dropped off precipitously, due in large part to the swarming perimeter defense of James Harden. What will happen this year when it's up to Kevin Martin to give the Thunder quality defensive minutes? I believe this is why Presti went out to get Ronnie Brewer but I predict that it won't be enough.With Splitter having taken a step forward and Leonard garnering a little more attention on the offensive end, I feel confident picking San Antonio to finish the job this year. 

The Heat are better this year than last year- Allen is a star-level win producer, as is Wade, and were it not for a slight down tick in offensive rebounds and steals (hustling?) Lebron would be having one of the best seasons anyone has ever had. The Spurs lack the athletes to give the Heat much trouble if LBJ and company play the way they are capable.

Deadline Winners and Losers

All quiet of the Western Front, and the Eastern Front...it was quiet on all of the fronts, actually. We won't let that stop us from handing out tips of the cap and wags of the finger, though.

Milwaukee Gets:                 Orlando Gets:
JJ Redick                           Tobias Harris
Gustavo Ayon                     Beno Udrih
Ish Smith                           Doron Lamb

Redick has been a strong, consistent win producer and derives that value from very stable skill sets (jump shooting, passing). Ayon had a great rookie season but has slowed this year. He claims to be dealing with leg injuries that have held him back and should be a good, cheap back-up Center next year after Dalembert and Pryz walk. The whole question is whether Redick will stay in Milwaukee. The only way I can see that happening is if they overpay, and they could have done that after the season, as JJ is unrestricted.
Orlando picks up an extra 1.5M in expiring money and nets the young and talented Tobias Harris. Harris played one season at Tennessee, put up strong DI, and then proceeded to ride the pine for the Bucks. Harris is a very efficient scorer but has struggled defensively, which kept him in the Skiles/Boylan doghouse. Also, Harris may not have a true position between the 3 and 4.
I'm a big fan of Harris' and think he'll be a nice piece for Orlando, even if it's only backing up Harkless.
Winner: Orlando benefits from the Bucks' shortsightedness, it's the Magic.

Houston Gets:                                Sacramento Gets:                        Phoenix Gets:
Thomas Robinson                          Patrick Patterson                         Marcus Morris
Francisco Garcia                            Cole Aldrich                              
Tyler Honeycutt                             Toney Douglas

The national media is falling all over themselves patting the Rockets on the back for landing Thomas Robinson, but we aren't so excited. Robinson received low marks on our grading system coming out of Kansas, and was actually much worse than even we thought he'd be. Some analytics folks remain optimistic due to his high contested rebound numbers, but we're pretty sure that T-Rob's clunky offensive game, less than ideal height, and propensity for turnovers will prevent him from making any quantum leaps. Houston also picks up a Garcia 6.1M option to complete the deal.
Sacramento has nothing to brag about either here though. Whatever you think of Robinson, if you're going to launch him after 50 games, you'd better get something more than than 3 bench players and some cap relief. I'm interested to see Aldrich get some court time, as he has a pretty strong DI profile and could be a really good rotational big. Patterson is competent but nothing special and Douglas is one of my least favorite players in the league. So, yeah.
Phoenix gets the other Morris twin, which seems redundant.
Winner: I'm tempted to say no one, but I like the Aldrich pickup and the extra run for Jason Thompson. We'll go with the Kings.

Thunder Gets:                             Portland Gets:                              New York Gets:
Ronnie Brewer                             Eric Maynor                               Trade Exception
Trade Exception 

These were two separate deals, but we'll take them in tandem. Maynor is a flashy PG with a shallow game who was easily the worst OKC regular (although they're replacing him with Fisher, whyyyyy?). Brewer is a great glue guy and one of the more underrated players in the league. Brewer isn't having an exceptional year, but I still want him on my side.
Winner: This NBA business is easy when you know what you're doing. OKC in a landslide.

Washington Gets:                            Boston Gets:
Leandro Barbosa                             Jordan Crawford  
Jason Collins

Ernie Grunfeld's been reading us! (http://thedraftabilityindex.blogspot.com/2012/12/concession-report-wizards-edition.html)
Winner: Crawford is a bad player and you got him off the books, nice job Wiz.

Toronto Gets:                                Phoenix Gets:
Sebastian Telfair                            Hamed Haddadi

I didn't set out to troll Bryan Colangelo, but this is getting ridiculous. Telfair is a hideously poor win producer...way to load up for the playoff push.
Winner: Phoenix

There were a few other deals of even less consequence, but we'll spare them our acerbic judgements. Now that the rosters are set, we'll be making our fearless second-half predictions. Stay tuned.

Celebrity Matchmaker: Contenders Edition

As the trade deadline approaches, let's take the league's Top 5 teams, and make the deal that's going to put them over the top. The only rules: they've got to be realistic and make sense for both sides.

San Antonio Gets: Paul Millsap (.160) , Alec Burks (.009) , Raja Bell (0)
Utah Gets: Tiago Splitter (.207) , Gary Neal (-.033) , and Stephen Jackson (-.013)

Why it would be awesome: The Spurs are reportedly chatting about sending a similar package to Utah in exchange for Al Jefferson. Jefferson, I fear, will gum things up and too fundamentally alter the flow of the most fluid team in the league. Millsap also provides low-post scoring, but is more athletic (important against OKC and Lob City) and could conceivably be a cornerstone of the franchise whenever Timmy rides off into the sunset. Al ain't doing that.
Utah gets a real center to pair with Favors, Hayward, and Kanter going forward. That could be cheap and good...

Oklahoma City Gets: Jason Terry (.128) , Jason Collins (-.073) , Leandro Barbosa (.51)
Boston Gets: Kendrick Perkins (.48) , DeAndre Liggins (.142)

OKC need did a decent job with the Harden trade, but they still need some help filling in the production the bearded one provided. In Terry you get a veteran with who will bring the right balance of aggressiveness and deference off the bench. Perkins gives them nothing and Thabeet and Orton can eat those minutes.
Boston gets Big Perk back, moves KG back to his natural position, clears minutes for Avery Bradley and Courtney Lee, and moves Jet's pretty icky contract out of town. Everyone wins.

Miami Gets: Marcin Gortat (.114) , Goran Dragic (.123) , Shannon Brown (.42)
Phoenix Gets: Chris Bosh (.133) , Norris Cole (-.99) , Dexter Pittman ( .150)

Well, it's pretty clear this won't be happening, but I contend that Bosh is just not a great fit in Miami, nor is he worth his giant contract. (I still am in the minority in blaming him, not LBJ, for the loss to Dallas in the finals - Chandler cremated C.B under the basket every single game). This would give Miami greater balance and roster flexibility going forward, and sets them up to make the next set of moves needed to keep Lebron on that roster and stay under the luxury.
Phoenix gets a 'star' to build around, which is what they want and in a sense allows them to hit the reset button with the rest of that roster.

New York Gets: Terrence Jones (.112)
Houston Gets: Imam Shumpert (.70)

It's no secret that the Knicks need some help with low-post scoring and don't have a lot of minutes at the point for the talented and athletic Shumpert. We loved Jones coming into the draft this summer and he's done a nice job with limited minutes. Houston has Patterson and Morris and has no where to put the rookie out of Kentucky.
Houston has been trying to get Toney Douglas to run their offense when the Yellow Mamba is out of the game, and that just isn't going to work.Get this deal done, guys. It's perfect!

LA Clippers Gets: Nobody
LA Clippers Gives Up: Nobody

The contender that seems the most anxious to make a move has been L.A, but frankly I'd like to see them roll with what they've got. Odom is starting to perk up, Hill is back, Chauncey has been amazing in his new role- just let it ride. There's no huge hole here, if it doesn't work, make a draft pick, bring everyone back, and see where you are at this time next year.

Get Smart! Our First 2013 Draft Preview

With March Madness in our sights, and plenty of lottery teams directing their focus to next year, we're taking our first look at the next year's crop of talent. I just took Chad Ford's current Top 10 and ran projections on their Draftability Index scores. Of course, there is plenty of time for things to change, and our official numbers and rankings are still aways off, but as The Break is upon us, its a great time to dive into things. Without further adieu...

(If you're just joining us, here's how DI works Welcome to the Index   )

1) Ben McLemore - Kansas                           
Projected DI - .88
Gold Prospect

McLemore is putting together a really nice season for a Freshman and is someone I'd feel good about taking within the Top 10; the kid can clearly shoot but hasn't produced enough in the facets of the game for me to feel comfortable taking him quite as high as Ford would.

2) Anthony Bennett - UNLV
Projected DI - .82
Gold Prospect

Very skilled and very athletic; another guy I could see on targeting on the edge of the lottery. He looks a lot like Millsap and Faried physically, but my one reservation would be the fairly ordinary rebound numbers. At 6'7, I'd feel much better if he were putting up 10-11 boards on his mid-major competition as opposed to 7.5

3) Nerlens Noel - Kentucky
Projected DI - 1.89
Green Prospect

The devastating knee injury suffered by Noel last week is a goddamn shame, but if I were in possession of the first pick next June, provided the docs gave me the A-OK, Noel would still be my guy.  He's a rebounding, shot-blocking machine, has yet to grow into his body, and can do more with the ball in his hand than Davis could last year. If he's on the court, I have a really, really, really hard time seeing this kid busitng.

4) Marcus Smart - Oklahoma State
Projected DI - 3.18
Green Prospect

I had seen a couple OK State games this year and came away really impressed with Smart. I knew he was a hotshot recruit and given DI's penchant for favoring big, quick point guards, figured he'd score pretty well. When I ran said numbers, I had to do it again. I thought I'd done it wrong. Smart is the highest scoring point guard I've ever seen on this thing, and he's a freshman. Easy #2 pick in the draft, I really can't see why not...

The knock on Smart is that he can't shoot, and he's going to have to make some progress there to be great. Basically, think of Rondo- he wasn't Rondo right away, but you'd still want that guy on your team even if he didn't make any strides with his offensive game. Or at least I would. Wow. Over 3???

5) Shabazz Muhammad - UCLA
Projected DI - .16
Gray Prospect

So everyone is great, huh? Well...not so fast. Muhammed certainly looks the part, and seems to have some considerable offensive ability, but the rest of his nightly lines have been criminally suspect given just what a great athlete he is. 4.5 Rebounds per game, less than 1 assist, less than 1 steal, 1 BLOCKED SHOT ALL SEASON! What? This guy might be my Austin Rivers this year, that's just gross.  One last slam, and why I'd never look at Muhammad. The kid is an absolute black hole. Why bring that on to a young, presumably bad team? You've got to pass.

6) Alex Len - Maryland
Projected DI - .26
Red Prospect

We have one of these every year, the tall, reasonably agile guy who hasn't done anything. For every one of these bigs that actually develop into a difference-maker, there are at least three or four that don't. I'm in no position to guarantee Len will be in the larger camp, but there's just no evidence here of future returns. We aren't going there.

7) Otto Porter - Georgetown
Projected DI - .97
Gold Prospect

A freshman who came out of nowhere, Porter is tall, long, a plus rebounder, and is showing a nice shot from distance. What is there not to like? Porter is not exceptionally quick, and will have to show he can actually guard NBA Small Forwards to validate the faith we have in him. At worst, you're going to get a guy who can come off the bench and gun a little bit. Lottery worthy.

8) Cody Zeller - Indiana
Projected DI - .61
Gold Prospect

This is almost the exact grade earned by brother Tyler, and we weren't too excited about his prospects either. Much like Tyler, we expect that Cody will have a long and basically competent career, but he has no dominant qualities, and will need to paired with the right players around him to thrive at the next level. I'm not taking him within the Top 20.

9) Michael Carter-Williams - Syracuse
Projected DI - 1.03
Green Prospect

Carter-Williams' grade confirms what I see when I watch him. Perhaps not a spectacular prospect, MCW is a large, athletic, and well-rounded point guard and likely one of the safer choices in the entire draft.

10) Victor Oladipo - Indiana
Projected DI - 1.01
Green Prospect

Victor is looking like my third favorite prospect in this batch of players. An extremely active and athletic defender, almost always does something smart when he's got the ball in his hand. He's a treat to watch. People are going to get picky because he neither a pure PG nor SG, but we've seen time and time again how little that matters. DI says 'you are what you can defend'. Oladipo can handle both guard spots and we're buying.

Hot Deadline Action: Gay to the Raps

In the first big trade of the season, here's what everybody came away with.

TORONTO                                WP48           
Rudy Gay (12-13)                        .040              
Rudy Gay (Career)                       . 76                

Hamad Haddadi (12-13)              - .001            
Hamad Haddadi (Career)               .087

MEMPHIS 
Ed Davis (12-13)                         .191
Ed Davis (Career)                        .199    

Tayshaun Prince (12-13)              .087
Tayshaun Prince (Career)             .130

Austin Daye (12-13)                    .137
Austin Daye (Career)                    .23

DETROIT
Jose Calderon (12-13)                  .234
Jose Calderon (Career)                 .201

Analysis: There was one guy in this trade with a giant contract and no history of efficient production and a whole lot was given up to get him. Bryan Colangelo may still have a pretty good reputation around the league but this is just the latest in a pretty long line of grievous errors on his part. Now, don't get me wrong, it is not inconceivable that a lineup of Lowry, Fields, Gay, Amir Johnson, and Valanciunas could be a factor in the East, especially if they can find a way to get from under the contracts of Bargnani and/or Derozan, but trading your best young player and an expiring contract for a defensively challenged over-shooter (on a team already overstuffed with defensively challenged over-shooters) does nothing to further that aim.

For Memphis, I kind of wished they had hung on to Calderon for the stretch run and figured out another way to fill out their roster, but this is still a pretty nice deal. They realized that giving Gay a big contract, though it may have felt necessary at the time, wasn't a very good idea, and they were able to get out from under it in fine fashion. Daye has always looked the part and his DI was quite respectable coming out of Gonzaga. In limited minutes this season has been quite productive, though to date he has still disappointed.
Has the light switched on? Did Memphis pull a fast one? That will determine whether this was a good trade or a great one. Prince is decent and 7M isn't exactly prohibitive if they want to dump him in a year or two.

Detroit gets Prince off the books and gets some return for Daye, whom they had clearly lost patience with. That opens up more minutes for the very solid Kyle Singler and is a step in the right general direction for that franchise.


WP as of 1/31/13 - Taken from www.thenbageek.com

We're Back! The Past 3 Weeks in Bullet Points

After a restful hiatus, DI is back and better than ever. It was a busy January of getting caught up on the latest crop of prospects (analysis coming shortly), playoff football, and Dog Days Association hoops. Good, interesting stuff all around, here were the highlights according to the Index...

- The Lakers mini-resurgence is an interesting basketball riddle. The quick analysis says that Kobe is working the ball around, getting easier shots for his teammates, and the team as a whole is more functional. I can't totally refute that- Pau and Nash are taking, and making more shots, and Earl Clark (who DI predicted would be a good player - is he finally going to pay that off?) has emerged as a legitimate threat, especially from beyond the arc. However, the more seminal cause of the upswing in L.A seems to be their dominating of the glass and the sharp decline in the shooting percentage of their opponents. Is Kobe shooting less and the team playing better D related? Have they just decided to finally play up to their ample abilities? This is interesting viewing, if nothing else...

- DI's biggest break with the mainstream in this year's draft class was on our championing of Tony Wroten. Last week's trade with Cleveland has cleared a rotation spot for Wroten and we're excited to get our first real look at the kid. Treat yourself to his highlight package from last week's win over the Lakers- time will tell if he'll be a consistently productive player but damn is he fun to watch. (Skip ahead to 1:53 for evidence of that)

 

  - One of DI's other favorites, Bradley Beal, has been quietly killing it over the month of January. The analysis is not too complicated- in December Beal shot 19% on threes, in January he's at a whopping 52%. He's just young, and this is still looking like a throwaway year, but make no mistake, he's a stud. Say whatever you want about our methods, but I think we can all agree OKC knows what they're doing, and they were about to trade Harden for this kid more or less straight up. What more do you need to know?

- We never quite bought the Warriors as a playoff team- too many guys having career best seasons, it usually doesn't last play out for a full 82 like that. But hey, they may just have what it takes to stick. If Bogut can stabilize the interior for them, and Curry doesn't miss too much time with his latest ankle tweak, they are probably going to hang on to the 6th or 7th seed in the West. They don't have any real sink holes (peace Monta) anymore, and that bench is just really, really good. Personally, I hope it works out, that's a great fan base and they deserve it.

                                

Concession Report: Cavs Edition

The second entry into the Concession Report is another team who came into the season with considerable optimism. The Cavs appeared to be well on their way to rebuilding the franchise: they had a marquee, if slightly overvalued 20 year old point guard in Kyrie Irving, a solid frontline in Varejao and Thompson, and another top five pick in a very strong draft. Even last season, they were a candidate for the 8th spot in the East prior to Varejao breaking his wrist in February.
Fast forward to 2013 and the Cavs hold the league's second-worst record and frankly get blown out a lot. Let's get out the forceps and dissect this corpse...

What Went Wrong: A common criticism levied by adherents to Win Score theory against certain players is that they shoot the basketball too much. It is better, we say, to engage all five players on the floor and work the offense to get high percentage shots. The counterargument is that players like Kobe need to shoot all of the time because they have the ability to 'create', and that the lesser players on the court only look efficient because they don't have to take tough isolation shots. The evidence tends to support spreading the ball around, but what, you may ask, is the point of all this?

I'm glad you asked. The point is that neither side could say a word about this Cavs team. This is a TERRIBLE shooting team. I have no idea who on this team should shoot, or at what point in the shot clock, or from where on the court- they suck at it all. They turn the ball over too. Only three teams turn it over more and they run at much quicker paces. Hold on a second, over half the team is shooting under 40%! Can that be true? Half the team!?! You could never win playing that way, ever. How is their defense? 25th in the league? Good.

Plus Irving and Varejao have missed time and Waiters and Zeller have been lousy.

What Went Right: They rebound the ball really well. Thompson hasn't exactly come flying out of the gates, but in his sophomore season is starting to look like the player that the Cavs hoped they were getting. (I don't have the numbers in front of me, but Thompson's DI was huge coming out of Texas, a green-plus prospect.) Varejao is a dominant force on the glass and has been one of the league's best players this season. Irving is an above-average contributor and is good enough you can check off the ever-important 'point guard' from the list of team needs.

If We Ran The Show: The current discussion regarding the future of the Cavs is whether to trade Varejao. He's 30, he gets hurt alot, you've got Thompson to take the 4, I can see where you might explore the option. That being said, trading Varejao just isn't advisable. Unless a team that uses analytics would give you something comparable to what Sideshow Bob is worth, I wouldn't dream of it. You shouldn't trade anyone whose actual value outstrips their perceived value, as a rule.
To begin to fix the Cavs, perhaps the most important step would just be to start cleaning out the clutter on this roster. This team is laden with players who have never been productive, and never will be. Gibson and Miles log heavy time and neither have even sniffed a .100 season. Gee plays 34 minutes a game and I can't say I would even want him in my rotation. I would swap out any of these guys that someone would take, comb the D-league and the waiver wire, play Luke Walton and Kevin Jones...These are all actually steps in the right direction.
You don't fix this thing with D-Leaguers though- You're going to have to break out of the safe GM paradigm to do that. The current leadership will likely continue to give run to their guys: Zeller, Casspi, and Waiters namely. It's the safe and obvious position, but one DI, and the players' own performances thus far, suggest is a futile one. The sooner they sell these guys off, the sooner they'll have a chance to compete. We would ride into town and start launching these bums.
The overall outlook here, as we said with Washington, is actually pretty solid. You've got 3 good starters, sufficient cap space, a likely high lottery pick and another first from the Lakers for Sessions. Poythress might be a good fit for them this summer. On the free agent market, they've got to get a defensive stopper and somebody with some leadership qualities. There are times the Cavs look decent for a half and then just come unspooled and that doesn't have to happen. Shawn Marion or Matt Barnes would suffice.