The Rookie Report Card 2012-2013

Greens (1.00 - +)              DI Score     Actual WP  (Avg per 48 mins - league avg - .100)
Anthony Davis                    2.80              .174
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist       1.56              .124
John Henson                      1.45               .163
Jared Sullinger                   1.08               .153      
Bradley Beal                       1.06               .088

Four of our five top-rated prospects came in and demonstrated the ability to produce wins for their teams. The only blemishes here are the fact that the troublesome back that dropped Sullinger down the draft board prematurely ended his season and the frigid first-half that tanked Beal’s rookie effort.

Golds (.50-.99 )                  DI Score      Actual WP
Tony Wroten                            .94             -.042

Jae Crowder                            .92             -.005
Kendall Marshall                      .90              .004
Terrence Jones                        .86              .210
Marquis Teague                       .83             -.086
Draymond Green                      .72             .047
Thomas Robinson                    .70              .023
Bernard James                         .70              .147
Harrison Barnes                        .68              .062
Tyler Zeller                                .62             -.017
Jeremy Lamb                            .60             -.088
Moe Harkless                           .59              .122  
Will Barton                               .58              -.004
Miles Plumlee                           .56              .022

As you will immediately note, a lot of these guys didn’t see the court much this season and so it’s tough to say anything terribly decisive on the basis of, in some cases, a few hundred minutes. As usual, we do see a pretty stark divide between the gold and green strata and find that the success rate does drop pretty precipitously.

Our open skepticism of high lottery picks Robinson and Barnes was largely validated, though Barnes did impress me at times this season. Moe Harkless was productive from day one in Orlando, which definitely came as a surprise, as he was thought to be quite raw.

Reds (.25-.49)                           DI Score       Actual WS

Terrance Ross                             .48                  -.001
Andre Drummond                        .45                   .313
Tyshawn Taylor                           .41                  -.213
Darius Miller                                .40                   .038
Jeff Taylor                                    .39                 -.002           
Meyers Leonard                           .35                  .034
Dion Waiters                                .31                 -.021
Damien Lillard                              .29                  .064
Robert Sacre                               .26                  -.220

In this grouping, productive players should be few and far between, and they are, however we do find the actual Rookie of the Year. Drummond was one of the best per minute players in the league period this season. In our defense, we did suggest in our pre-draft write-up that there was significant appeal in targeting Drummond once the top guys were off the board as a Bynum-type speculation choice. Little did we know- now all they have to do is play him.

The 'real' Rookie of the Year, Lillard, displayed enough offensive efficiency to post a marginal Win Score, but the limitations of his game were pretty apparent too, I thought. Ross and Waiters did nothing to disprove our contention that they were huge reaches and marginal prospects.

Grays (.24 and - )                     DI Score       Actual WS

Perry Jones                                   24                  -.075
Doron Lamb                                  .22                 -.101
Arnett Moultre                               .21                  .252
Andrew Nicholson                        .19                   .011
Kim English                                  .18                  -.021
Orlando Johnson                          .16                  .124
Austin Rivers                                .13                  -.093
Festus Ezeli                                  .11                  .089
John Jenkins                                 .11                  .105

The subject of possibly excessive pre-draft ridicule at our hands, Austin Rivers was, in fact, quite bad. However, there were some amazingly promising performances to come out of the bottom of our rankings. Moultrie received good run as the Sixers played out the string and played great around-the-hoop basketball. We knew he was a good athlete, but he played strong and rebounded too- we’ll be very interested to see him next season. Jenkins and Ezeli played consistent, productive roles on playoff teams and are definitely NBA players. It goes to show that a young guy, even with a muddy second-rounder profile belongs at the end of your bench far more than some Juwan Howard type towel waver.

**There are a number of other Rooks who played significant minutes that, for whatever reason, didn’t make it onto our pre-draft sheet. We ran their pro and college numbers and will stick them at the bottom here**

Et Cetera                        DI Score          Actual WS

Patrick Beverley                 .62                    .206

Qunicy Acy                        .28                    .190

Chris Johnson                    .34                    .149

Kyle O’Quinn                      .28                    .105

Mike Scott                           .21                    .084

Kevin Jones                         .42                    .041

Brian Roberts                     .13                     .015

Khris Middleton                   .28                    .008

Ben Hansbrough                 .24                   -.008

Chris Copeland                   .14                   -.045

Ken Bazemore                    .74                   -.068

Malik Wayns                       .11                    -.213

The uniting principle at work here is that most of these players didn’t get enough minutes to say anything conclusively good or bad. (The only player on the list to crack 1000 minutes is Brian Roberts- with a putrid .13 DI, I'll go out on a limb and say I don't like his chances.) 
Beverley certainly looks like a player and will get a chance to validate his performance as he will likely be a key piece for the Rockets again next season. It doesn’t look like any of these guys would have popped off of our draft board. We'll see if indeed Beverley, Acy, Johnson, and O'Quinn hold up next season and beyond.