Friday, May 3, 2013

The Rookie Report Card 2012-2013

Greens (1.00 - +)              DI Score     Actual WP  (Avg per 48 mins - league avg - .100)
Anthony Davis                    2.80             
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist       1.56             
John Henson                      1.45               .1
Jared Sullinger                   1.08              
Bradley Beal                       1.06              

Four of our five top-rated prospects came in and demonstrated the ability to produce wins for their teams. The only blemishes here are the fact that the troublesome back that dropped Sullinger down the draft board prematurely ended his season and the frigid first-half that tanked Beal’s rookie effort.

Golds (.50-.99 )                  DI Score      Actual WP
Tony Wroten                            .94             
Jae Crowder                            .92             -.005
Kendall Marshall                      .90              
Terrence Jones                        .86              
Marquis Teague                       .83            
Draymond Green                      .72            
Thomas Robinson                    .70             
Bernard James                         .70             
Harrison Barnes                        .68             
Tyler Zeller                                .62            
Jeremy Lamb                            .60            
Moe Harkless                           .59             
Will Barton                               .58             
Miles Plumlee                           .56             

As you will immediately note, a lot of these guys didn’t see the court much this season and so it’s tough to say anything terribly decisive on the basis of, in some cases, a few hundred minutes. As usual, we do see a pretty stark divide between the gold and green strata and find that the success rate does drop pretty precipitously.
Our open skepticism of high lottery picks Robinson and Barnes was largely validated, though Barnes did impress me at times this season. Moe Harkless was productive from day one in Orlando, which definitely came as a surprise, as he was thought to be quite raw.

Reds (.25-.49)                           DI Score       Actual WS
Terrance Ross                             .48                  -.001
Andre Drummond                        .45                   
Tyshawn Taylor                           .41                  
Darius Miller                                .40                  
Jeff Taylor                                    .39                 
Meyers Leonard                           .35                  
Dion Waiters                                .31                
Damien Lillard                              .29                 
Robert Sacre                               .26                  -.220

In this grouping, productive players should be few and far between, and they are, however we do find the actual Rookie of the Year. Drummond was one of the best per minute players in the league period this season. In our defense, we did suggest in our pre-draft write-up that there was significant appeal in targeting Drummond once the top guys were off the board as a Bynum-type speculation choice. Little did we know- now all they have to do is play him.
The 'real' Rookie of the Year, Lillard, displayed enough offensive efficiency to post a marginal Win Score, but the limitations of his game were pretty apparent too, I thought. Ross and Waiters did nothing to disprove our contention that they were huge reaches and marginal prospects.

Grays (.24 and - )                     DI Score       Actual WS
Perry Jones                                   24                  -.075
Doron Lamb                                  .22                
Arnett Moultre                               .21                  
Andrew Nicholson                        .19                  
Kim English                                  .18                 
Orlando Johnson                          .16                  .
Austin Rivers                                .13                  -.093
Festus Ezeli                                  .11                  
John Jenkins                                 .11                 

The subject of possibly excessive pre-draft ridicule at our hands, Austin Rivers was, in fact, quite bad. However, there were some amazingly promising performances to come out of the bottom of our rankings. Moultrie received good run as the Sixers played out the string and played great around-the-hoop basketball. We knew he was a good athlete, but he played strong and rebounded too- we’ll be very interested to see him next season. Jenkins and Ezeli played consistent, productive roles on playoff teams and are definitely NBA players. It goes to show that a young guy, even with a muddy second-rounder profile belongs at the end of your bench far more than some Juwan Howard type towel waver.

**There are a number of other Rooks who played significant minutes that, for whatever reason, didn’t make it onto our pre-draft sheet. We ran their pro and college numbers and will stick them at the bottom here**

Et Cetera                        DI Score          Actual WS

Patrick Beverley                 .62                    .206
Qunicy Acy                        .28                    .190
Chris Johnson                    .34                    .149
Kyle O’Quinn                      .28                    .105
Mike Scott                           .21                    .084
Kevin Jones                         .42                    .041
Brian Roberts                     .13                     .015
Khris Middleton                   .28                    .008
Ben Hansbrough                 .24                   -.008
Chris Copeland                   .14                   -.045
Ken Bazemore                    .74                   -.068
Malik Wayns                       .11                    -.213

The uniting principle at work here is that most of these players didn’t get enough minutes to say anything conclusively good or bad. (The only player on the list to crack 1000 minutes is Brian Roberts- with a putrid .13 DI, I'll go out on a limb and say I don't like his chances.) 
Beverley certainly looks like a player and will get a chance to validate his performance as he will likely be a key piece for the Rockets again next season. It doesn’t look like any of these guys would have popped off of our draft board. We'll see if indeed Beverley, Acy, Johnson, and O'Quinn hold up next season and beyond.

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