Saturday, June 15, 2013

DI Review: The 2006 Draft

The following is the seventh in a ten part series in which we'll review the past 10 NBA drafts, provide the Draftability Index Score for every American college prospect, and analyze the findings. One note before we dive in, all of the data is being pulled from Basketball Reference and the NBA Geek and the win share numbers are the players' career average per 48 minutes to date. If you're new to that measurement, a league average score is .100 and 'star' level production correlates to .200 and above.

The rating system is as follows: Green level prospects are the strongest and will be notated with an E, Gold level prospects are reasonably desirable prospects and are notated with a G, Red level prospects are suspect prospects and are notated with an R, and Gray level prospects are highly suspect and are notated with a Y.

2006 was the year the Toronto Raptors pulled a little bit of lottery upset and promptly fell in love with an Italian sharpshooter named Andrea. The more forward thinking teams had been making hay off the Euro kids for years- what could go wrong?

Round One

                                             DI Score           Rating          WP per 48
2) LaMarcus Aldridge              2.01                    E                   .098
3) Adam Morrison                   0.18                     Y                  -.002
4) Tyrus Thomas                    1.11                    E                    .066
5) Sheldan Williams                0.99                    G                   .098
6) Brandon Roy                       0.31                    R                   .154
7) Randy Foye                        0.59                     G                   .044
8) Rudy Gay                            1.38                     E                   .075
9) Patrick O'Bryant                 0.37                     R                   .046
11) J.J Redick                         0.21                     Y                   .120
12) Hilton Armstrong               0.29                     R                   .052
14) Ronnie Brewer                 1.50                     E                    .210
15) Cedric Simmons              0.46                     R                    .005
16) Rodney Carney                0.65                     G                    .064
17) Shawne Williams             0.65                     G                    .056
19) Quincy Douby                  0.22                      Y                    .000
20) Renaldo Balkman             0.73                     G                    .212
21) Rajon Rondo                    1.02                      E                    .218
22) Marcus Williams               0.47                     R                   -.001
23) Josh Boone                      0.52                      G                   .097
24) Kyle Lowry                       0.65                      G                    .157
25) Shannon Brown                0.19                     Y                     .036
26) Jordan Farmar                  0.35                     R                    .072
28) Maurice Ager                    0.04                      Y                    -.003
29) Mardy Collins                    0.85                      G                    .022

Notes: Two of the five green prospects hit, including an impact player from the back half of the first round in Rondo. Of our misses- Aldridge and Gay have held good value and have flirted with the .100 mark throughout their career. Tyrus Thomas has been productive, but since getting a nice sized contract in Charlotte, has been indifferent and out of shape. We don't account for such things here, but he could play if he wanted to. 
From the gold level we have some productive players (Lowry, Balkman) and some dogs as well. Following DI and avoiding red and gray level prospects would have spared you busts like Hilton Armstrong, Patrick O'Bryant and the infamous Adam Morrison but also would have taken Brandon Roy and J.J Redick off your board. 
This isn't the Index's strongest showing, however zeroing in on the green and gold prospects here would have still left you far better off than whatever dartboard approach was used to actually make these picks.

Round Two

                                             DI Score           Rating          WP per 48
31) James White                      0.45                  R                     .062
32) Steve Novak                       0.11                  Y                      .089
33) Solomon Jones                  0.18                   Y                     .026
34) Paul Davis                          0.14                   Y                     .035
35) P.J Tucker                          0.77                   G                    .157
36) Craig Smith                        0.50                   G                     .092
37) Bobby Jones                      0.49                    R                    .060
39) David Noel                         0.19                     Y                    .024
41) James Augustine               0.85                    G                    .101
42) Daniel Gibson                    0.76                    G                    .056
45) Alexander Johnson            0.17                     Y                    .056
46) Dee Brown                         0.28                     R                    .008
47) Paul Millsap                       1.74                     E                     .165
49) Leon Powe                         0.26                    R                     .165
50) Ryan Hollins                       0.12                    Y                     -.002
52) Guillermo Diaz                   0.25                     R                    .033
54) Hassan Adams                  0.62                     G                     .072
60) Will Blalock                        0.31                     R                    -.004

Notes: We can't get in a time machine and say for certain but I have got imagine, that as the draft's second highest scoring player, Millsap would have been all over our radar. P.J Tucker register as one of the more surprising hits we'll see- spending one year in Toronto- the next five in Europe and then making the Suns out of camp and posting a really nice season off of the Phoenix bench. We missed a couple solid players in Novak and Powe all told this was a good round for the Index.

We are merciful and therefore bestow suit of the year upon...

MJ was so sure...

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