Monday, June 17, 2013

DI Review: 2007 Draft

The following is the eighth in a ten part series in which we'll review the past 10 NBA drafts, provide the Draftability Index Score for every American college prospect, and analyze the findings. One note before we dive in, all of the data is being pulled from Basketball Reference and the NBA Geek and the win share numbers are the players' career average per 48 minutes to date. If you're new to that measurement, a league average score is .100 and 'star' level production correlates to .200 and above. 

The rating system is as follows: Green level prospects are the strongest and will be notated with an E, Gold level prospects are reasonably desirable prospects and are notated with a G, Red level prospects are suspect prospects and are notated with an R, and Gray level prospects are highly suspect and are notated with a Y.

I remember being in my dorm room in 2007, with a big bad paper due at oh-800 hours, and for background noise I put on the opening minutes of a Texas-Oklahoma State game I probably could not have been less invested in. What was to follow was, if not the best, certainly the most entertaining college basketball game I've ever seen. 

It was a track meet from the opening whistle, and it would take three overtimes to settle, before OK State finally emerged 105-103. The game should ended in regulation and it definitely should have ended before the third overtime, but the tall, skinny guy on the Horns just wouldn't let it... 

I was a bit of a draftnik then, and of course I was familiar with Kevin Durant prior to that night, but it was then, as he poured in 37 points, 12 boards, and literally would not allow his team to lose, that it became clear we weren't just watching another great player...we were watching a great player. I've re-experienced that game a couple more times on YouTube ( and it  just doesn't get old. That's one of the great things about sports- how succinctly and definitively the next big thing can arrive.

And I did write that paper, but it was hours after the game ended...

Round One

                                             DI Score           Rating           WP per 48
1) Greg Oden                          1.33                   E                      .198
2) Kevin Durant                       1.31                   E                      .178
3) Al Horford                            0.66                   G                      .162
4) Mike Conley                         1.83                    E                     .130
5) Jeff Green                           0.45                    R                      .020
7) Corey Brewer                      0.58                   G                      .038
8) Brandan Wright                   1.05                   E                      .198
9) Joakim Noah                        1.01                   E                      .231
10) Spencer Hawes                 0.31                   R                      .016
11) Acie Law                            0.43                   R                       .032
12) Thaddeus Young               0.27                    R                      .101
13) Julian Wright                      1.56                   E                       .062
14) Al Thornton                        0.40                    R                      .035
15) Rodney Stuckey                0.05                    Y                       .051
16) Nick Young                        0.18                     Y                      -.028
17) Sean Williams                   0.19                     Y                      .073
19) Javaris Crittenton               0.42                     R                      .002
20) Jason Smith                       0.06                     Y                      .001
21) Daequan Cook                   0.43                     R                      .015
22) Jared Dudley                      0.50                     G                      .179
23) Wilson Chandler                0.41                     R                      .053
25) Morris Almond                    0.11                     Y                      .005
26) Aaron Brooks                     0.31                      R                     .011
27) Arron Afflalo                       0.23                     Y                       .098
29) Alando Tucker                   0.36                      R                      .045

Notes: Five of the six green level prospects have been productive players: Oden has had a tragic run of injuries but hopefully he has a little bit of basketball left in him. Julian Wright was a big swing and a miss- perhaps the single biggest miss, but otherwise things are looking good.
We see similar positive results from the gold prospects. Horford and Dudley have been very solid. From the reds and grays, we missed a couple decent players (Young, Afflalo) but for the most part, DI has successfully isolated many of the least productive players in this draft. It was a good, predictable year.

Round Two

                                             DI Score           Rating          WP per 48 
31) Carl Landry                        0.39                    R                    .133
32) Gabe Pruitt                        0.23                     Y                    .043
33) Marcus Williams               0.38                     R                    -.009
34) Nick Fazekas                    0.65                     G                    .148
35) Glen Davis                        0.53                     G                     -.013
36) Jermareo Davidson          0.23                      Y                     .000
37) Josh McRoberts                0.64                     G                     .119
41) Chris Richard                    0.10                     Y                     .045
42) Derrick Byars                    0.34                      R                    .147
43) Adam Haluska                  0.26                       R                    .000
44) Reyshawn Terry              0.61                       G                    .000
45) Jared Jordan                    0.17                        Y                    .000
46) Stephane Lasme              1.61                       E                    .041
47) Dominic McGuire              1.30                       E                    .151
49) Aaron Gray                        0.92                        G                   .072
51) JamesOn Curry                0.17                       Y                    .000
52) Taurean Green                 0.41                        R                  -.006
53) Demetris Nichols              0.35                       R                  -.020
55) Herbert Hill                        0.18                       Y                    .000
56) Ramon Sessions             0.49                        R                   .127
57) Sammy Mejia                   0.23                        Y                    .000
59) D.J Strawberry                 0.40                        R                  -.003

Notes: TWO green level prospects this second round- McGuire, currently the best win producer to come out of this group of players and Stephane Lasme. Admittedly I needed to do some research on Lasme. He played his college ball at UMass and established a reputation as a defensive stopper- similar to a Luc Mbah a Moute. He was drafted by Golden State, broke his foot immediately, and was waived. He bounced back and forth between the U.S and Europe, picked up a few hundred minutes with the Heat, almost made the '10-11 Celtics, before going back East. Lasme is the current EuroLeague Defensive Player of the Year and laid down some good run in the D-League. Now I'm not  saying the league whiffed on him, but not saying I wouldn't be tempted to bring the guy to camp either...
ANYWAYS, DI misses on Landry and Sessions, but otherwise things look pretty much in order here. 

I miss the Sonics...

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